For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
"The 'B-' rating reflects the recent history of local currency defaults, as well as the political uncertainties influencing congressional approval of key economic reform measures."
This is the second consecutive year that the agency decided not to change the country's rating, as Fitch Ratings reported a year ago that it had decided to maintain the rating of foreign currency debt at "B-", and on that occasion argued that political tensions made it difficult to reach agreements on government financing.
The rating agency decided to keep the debt rating at B3 with a stable outlook, arguing that the country's tax burden is high, but stable.
The last rating variation was made in February 2018, when it was reported that at that time the political agreement reached to approve the resources to pay pension funds and the reduction in liquidity risk based the decision of the rating agency to raise the score from Caa1 to B3.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
Standard & Poors raised the rating from CCC+/C to B-/B, with a stable outlook, arguing that in the next three years the fiscal deficit will be moderate, and its debt levels will remain unchanged.
From the Standard & Poors report:
RATINGS
Foreign Currency: B-/Stable/B
Local Currency: B-/Stable/B
For further details see Ratings List.
Fitch Ratings has kept the debt rating in foreign currency at "B-", arguing that political tension has been reduced following the pension reform approved in October last year and the budget passed in January of this year.
Fitch Ratings-New York-13 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed El Salvador's long-term, foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B-' with a Stable Outlook.
The key factor driving the rating upgrade is the significant reduction of the government liquidity risks, as political agreements have led to Congress´approval of long-term government financing and pension reform.
Risk rating firm Moody's announced on Friday, February 23 that El Salvador's debt was rated B3, which represents an improvement from the previous rating of Caa1.However, the country is still considered an issuer with risk of not fulfilling its obligations.
One day after reducing the debt rating to Selective Default, Standard & Poors has now raised it to CCC, after the government completed debt restructuring.
S & P Global Ratings (formerly Standard and Poor's) yesterday upgraded El Salvador's sovereign risk rating to "CCC +" after declaring the country in default because it considered the restructuring of the pension debt to be a de facto operation. See: "El Salvador in selective default".
Standard & Poor's has lowered its debt rating to SD after the Legislative Assembly approved a pension reform which includes a restructuring of government debt.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor´s:
El Salvador's Congress approved amendments to the terms of its Certificates for Pension Investments (CIPs).
Based on our criteria, we consider this change in the original terms to be a default.
El Salvador's 'CCC' Long-Term ratings reflect Fitch's assessment that political polarization complicating the sovereign's ability to meet its financing gap for 2017-2018, continues, highlighting the risk for default.
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-28 July 2017: Fitch Ratings has affirmed El Salvador's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'CCC'.
Fitch Ratings has raised the Salvadoran debt rating to CCC, but warned that political polarization could continue to affect the approval of new long-term loans.
The decision to raise the IDR risk rating in local currency was taken by Fitch Ratings after the government paid interest on Pension Funds Certificates (CIPs) to private pension funds on April 28.
More expensive external credit, deterioration of the country's image, and higher local interest rates are just some of the consequences that could result from the non-payment of $55 million to pension funds.
The decision taken by the Sánchez Cerén administration not to pay interest to pension funds on the grounds of lack of support from the opposition political party has caused not only a down grading of the debt rating by agencies such as Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's, but has also led the business sector to raise its voice about the seriousness of the situation and to warn about possible consequences on economic activity.
Two months after reducing the rating from B + to B, Standard & Poor's has now reduced the note to B-, with a negative outlook.
From a press release by Standard & Poor's:
OVERVIEW
El Salvador's liquidity has deteriorated significantly because of protracted negotiations between the government and opposition parties on a comprehensive set of fiscal reforms that has weakened debt management.
Arguing a significant increase in liquidity risk and political divisions that are preventing approval of an issuance of long-term debt, the rating agency has downgraded the rating and changed the outlook to negative.
From a press release issued by Moody's:
New York, November 07, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded El Salvador's issuer and long-term debt ratings to B3 from B1 and assigned a negative outlook to the ratings, concluding the review for possible downgrade initiated on 11 August.
The ratings agency has reduced the rating for long-term sovereign debt from B + to B, arguing that political capacity to resolve the fiscal problem is shrinking.
From a press release by Standard & Poor´s:
Continued political stalemate in El Salvador has led to a deterioration of institutional and governance effectiveness, which has contributed to a weaker external profile, and a further erosion of the government's liquidity.