The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Standard and Poor's announced that it downgraded Costa Rican bonds from BB- to B+, adding to Moody's downgrade in early December.
Standard and Poor's (S&P) reported that the decision was made because the country's fiscal situation could generate a continuous increase in the general government's net debt burden.
“If the recent tax reform is not effectively implemented, and if additional fiscal measures are implemented if necessary, a continuous increase in the net debt burden of the general government could be generated, which will contribute to higher interest expenditures," explains the S&P report."
The rating agency reduced the long-term and senior unsecured bond issuer ratings of the Costa Rican government from Ba2 to Ba1 and changed the outlook to negative.
According to Moody's, among the main factors behind the decline is the continued and projected worsening of debt metrics in the back of large deficits despite fiscal consolidation efforts.
After Costa Rica's Constitutional Chamber prepared the path for tax reform in the Congress, the dollar's price against the local currency stopped rising, and positive reactions were reported in the risk outlook.
Last November 23rd, Court IV issued its judgment, so the law project has a free way to move forward more quickly during the coming weeks in the Congress.
The State of the Nation 2018 Report explains that during 2017 and the first months of 2018 the progress of Costa Rica's economy has been adverse and, in the short term, the prospects for economic opportunities, solvency and stability are negative.
Most of the drivers of Costa Rica's economy have declined in recent months, resulting in Costa Rica going through a period of multiple economic and political risks.
Moody's downgraded the long-term issuer ratings and the Costa Rican government's unsecured bonds.
Yesterday the risk rating agency reported that expectations of a continued decline in fiscal indicators and evidence of increased financing needs are some of the reasons behind the decision to revise the country's debt rating.
Rocio Aguilar, Finance Minister, explained to Crhoy.com that Moody's warning is "...
The deterioration of public finances and the inability of the Alvarado administration to end the blockades set up by trade unionists are again drawing the attention of rating agencies and the international market, who foresee a complicated economic future for Costa Rica.
According to the risk rating agency Moody's, the demonstrations by public sector unions are increasingly complicating the path towards a much-needed reform of public finances, which would take its first steps with the approval of the bill that is being discussed in the Legislative Assembly.
In the view of Moody's, Fitch and S & P, the latest projections of public debt and fiscal deficit by the Central Bank of Costa Rica, further worsen the outlook for the debt rating.
Last week the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) released a report in which it explained that for this year it is expected that the public debt with respect to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will reach 53.8%, and by 2019 this indicator will reach 58.4%.
The IMF believes that the financial stability framework is not well prepared to handle a potential systemic financial crisis without seriously compromising fiscal resources.
In a review carried out late last year, the International Monetary Fund identified serious vulnerabilities in the pension sector, secondary markets and crisis management mechanisms and stated that they need to be taken care of immediately.
Panama and Nicaragua are among the ten countries in Latin America with the highest risk of money laundering, according to the Basel Institute of Governance.
The anti-money laundering index (AML) prepared by the Basel Institute of Governance places Panama in fourth place in the list of countries with the highest risk of money laundering and financing of terrorist activities in Latin America and the Caribbean.
...and I will tell you who you are. In their quest to reduce exposure to risk, banking correspondents have started to restrict the services they provide to gambling companies, remittance companies, and brokerage firms that are not related to banking groups in the region.
In order to reduce risk exposure, some international banks with correspondents in Panama and other countries in the region are failing to open accounts for or provide services for companies whose income comes from activities such as remittances and gambling.The banks' argument is that they are more likely to be used for money laundering. Even non-banking brokerage firms claim to have difficulty offering their customers products and services,"... since banks wont open accounts in which customers can deposit their funds and receive a return on their investment."
The Superintendency of Banks is working on an update of the regulation on credit risk management and a new regulation of corporate governance for insurers.
Jose Alejandro Arevalo, head of the Superintendency of Banks (SIB), told Dca.gob.gt that"... in the case of regulation 93-2005 they want to ensure that the valuation of assets which is presented every 4 months by banks reflects economic reality and the quality of the goods."
A bill being promoted by the executive branch seeks to authorize the Bank of Guatemala to finance the capitalization of a bank when it faces problems affecting financial stability.
The aim of this initiative is to adapt the rules on financial supervision and risk control to international standards, to prevent the stability of the domestic financial system from being affected when a bank has liquidity or solvency problems.
The risks are: uncertainty about sustainability of public finances, increasing dollarization of the loan portfolio, and inflationary pressures from excess liquidity.
In its commentary on the national economy No. 5-2016 of May 2, 2016, the Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica said:
"... The Central Bank reiterates the existence of risks to macroeconomic stability.
The agency has changed the outlook from stable to negative, warning that there is still a lack a political consensus for approving a fiscal adjustment to reduce costs and improve the debt / GDP ratio.
The lack of political consensus to reduce the fiscal deficit will continue to put pressure on the government's rising debt burden.