After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
In Nicaragua, the government plans to increase employer, labor, and state Social Security contributions, and to approve a tax reform that would increase taxes for medium and large companies.
Although the country has been in a serious economic and political crisis since April 2018, when the government tried to implement reforms to the Nicaraguan Institute of Social Security (INSS), the Ortega administration is once again trying to make changes to the institution, this time through an administrative resolution.
Because of the political crisis that began in Nicaragua in April, during the third quarter of last year the country's GDP fell by 4.5% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the third quarter of 2018, the economy registered a 4.8 percent year-on-year decline and a 0.5 percent annual average reduction.
From January to October of this year, 13 out of 17 domestic consumption activities reported contractions over the same period in 2017.
The third report of the Economic Activities Monitoring of Nicaragua of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), detail that the sales of urbanization companies that build homes of medium-high and high level from January to October of this year are 80% lower than those recorded in the first 10 months of 2017.
After the political and social crisis that began in April, the Nicaraguan economy will lose more than $1.3 billion this year, and GDP could decline by 4%, together with the collateral effects suffered by the countries of the region.
Several indicators have reflected the weak performance of the country's economy since the crisis began. One of them is the IMAE, as the Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that following the trend that has been observed since May, in September the index reported a 4.3% decrease compared to the same month in 2017.
Following the trend observed since May, in September the monthly index of economic activity in Nicaragua reported a 4.3% drop compared to the same month in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) registered a 4.3 percent decrease compared to September 2017, with an annual variation of -0.2 percent and a 1.9 percent decrease in the accumulated variation.
Justifying a larger-than-expected economic contraction, a growing fiscal deficit and a greater risk of internal and external financial constraints, the rating agency lowered the rating from B to B-.
This is Fitch Ratings' second downgrade so far this year. In the first quarter, the rating was B+ with a solid outlook, in the second quarter the rating agency downgraded it to B with a negative outlook, and now it downgraded it to B-, and kept the negative outlook.
The decline in economic activity is the reason for the year-on-year decline of 36% reported in the capital goods imports up to August this year.
According to figures from the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), between August 2017 and the same month of this year, imports of capital goods registered a fall of 35.8%, declining from $107 million to $69 million.
New World Bank projections estimate that because of Nicaragua's political crisis, the country's GDP will fall 4% this year and 1% in 2019.
According to the expectations of the international organization, Nicaragua will be the only economy that will decrease in Central America, because of the political and social crisis in which the country is involved since last April, it is expected that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease 3.8% in 2018 compared to 2017.
Due to the crisis that has been unfolding in the country since April, the ECLAC has reduced its growth projection for the Nicaraguan economy from 5% to 0.5% this year.
Laprensa.com.ni reports that "...Before the crisis, the ECLAC placed Nicaragua among the fiveLatin Americaneconomieswith the highest growth for this year, with an expansion of GDP of 5% after having grown 4.9% in 2017."
The Central Bank has reviewed its projections in the current complicated context, and expects an economic growth rate between 0.5% and 1.5%, and an inflationary rhythm in the range of 6.5% to 8.5%.
According to authorities at the Central Bank of Nicaragua, the "... new projection of economic growth for the year 2018 is between 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent. On the other hand, inflation is estimated between 6.5 and 8.5 percent.In relation to labor, a loss of 85,100 jobs is projected, which is equivalent to a rate of around 6 percent."
The downgrade and Outlook change reflect increasing political instability and the corresponding deterioration of Nicaragua's investment, economic growth, and public finance outlook
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Nicaragua's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B' from 'B+'. The Outlook is Negative.
In response to the rupture of the dialogue on the part of the Ortega administration, companies and citizen organizations have called for a national strike on Thursday, June 14.
Demanding the cessation of repression by the Government and the resumption of the National Dialogue, social and business organizations, called for a general strike to take place tomorrow.
In the optimistic scenario, which foresees an end to the crisis in Nicaragua by the end of July, economic growth at the end of 2018 would be only 1.7%, with $400 million losses in added value.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development projects that a possible first scenario would be one where "...the government accepts an early exit negotiated and implemented no later than the end of July, thus achieving a framework of understanding focused on the issues of justice and democratization, putting an end to repression, violence and citizen insecurity."