Due to the crisis affecting Nicaragua and paralysis of construction in Panama between April and May, the IMF has reduced the expectation of economic growth for the Central American region from 4% to 3.3%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut growth forecasts for the Central American economy, due to the uncertainty caused by the situation in Nicaragua and its effect on the region's economic activity, and the impact of the construction strike in Panama, which has halted works on 260 projects nationwide for the last 30 days.
Plant diseases such as rust in coffee plantations, added to an oversupply of sugar worldwide, explain some of the moderate expectations that entrepreneurs have for some of the most important agricultural products in the region.
Representatives of the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif) of Guatemala believe that the deceleration that has been registered in international prices of some raw materials and agro-industrial products suggest a decline in local production.
Despite a decrease reported in the export of Honduran palm oil in the first months of the year, better results are anticipated for the second half of 2018, due to a higher than expected volume in the harvest.
According to figures from the Central Bank of Honduras, in the first four months of the year the country registered $54 million in exports of palm oil and its fractions, a figure that is 34% lower than the value reported in the same period in 2017.
Authorities estimate that during 2018 some $350 million will be invested in public and private works, and that the sector could generate approximately 23 thousand new jobs.
According to the Honduran Institute of Tourism, investments are expected such as the cruise dock in Roatán and the construction of a hotel in San Pedro Sula.
The sector union foresees that for the 2017-2018 harvest foreign currency generated from sales abroad will fall by 14% with respect to the previous season.
Explained by a drop in the average price per hundredweight of exports, which fell from $145 in the 2016-2017 season to $123 so far in the current harvest, the Honduran Coffee Institute (Ihcafé) envisages a 14% decrease in income from sales abroad.
Due to climate effects, the Honduran union expects that around 40,000 less tons of sugar will be produced in the current season.
On top of the climate situation is also the fact that the price of sugar has been falling, partly explained by the abundant crops reported in places such as India.The result of this is that production costs in countries such as Honduras are reducing competitiveness of the crop.
Following 2017's 5% increase in the arrival of foreign tourists, the authorities foresee an increase of 6% for this year.
Regarding the figures on domestic tourism, authorities in the sector estimate that last year this item generated an economic spillover of about $2.122 million, an amount that they aim to exceed in 2018.
Between February and March of this year the Confidence Index of Economic Activity rose from 46.5 to 46.9, registering an increase of just 1%.
According to the Survey on Macroeconomic Analysts' Expectations, prepared by the Central Bank of Honduras, during March the people consulted " ... stated that the country's economic situation has improved, evidenced in the macroeconomic variables at the end of 2017, which were very positive; they hope that the Government's fiscal discipline that favors control of spending will continue and that the approved tax reforms will stimulate investment and employment generation."
Representatives from the sector reported that during the first quarter of the year, 1,069 homes were built, which is equivalent to 14% of the total units that they plan to build this year.
According to the Honduran Chamber of Construction Industry (Chico), so far about $3.4 million has been invested in the construction of 1,069 homes, and to complete the 7,695 housing units planned, about $212 million will be disbursed in 2018.
The union for the sector reports that from January to March of this year, they have exported 1,200 tons of beef, and this year they expect to sell abroad around $22 million worth.
According to authorities at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG), during the first quarter of the year there have been good numbers in sales abroad, reporting average exports of 400 tons per month.
The Honduran Coffee Growers Association has stated that exports of the special grain will continue to increase, and in the present harvest they plan to export three million bags of differentiated coffee.
Representatives from the Honduran Coffee Institute (Ihcafé) announced that so far this season, they have sold more than one million bags of speciality coffee, equivalent to $1.144 million, and the main destination markets are the United States and Europe.
Currently the poultry industry has about 5.5 million birds for commercial supply and 14 million broilers, and this year they project growth of 4%.
Regarding the data on the sector, Marco Antonio Baquedano, coordinator of the National Poultry Program at the National Service for Agrifood Health and Safety (SENASA), told Latribuna.hn that "...
The union of producers has estimated crop production for 2016/17 at 12 million hundredweight, slightly above the results seen in the previous season.
Of the total that the Association of Sugar Producers of Honduras (APAH) estimates will be produced, 70% will go to the local market, and the remaining 30% will be for export, from which it is expected that $100 million will be earned.
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