During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).
During the third month of the year, it was forecast that GDP growth at the end of 2019 will be at 3.9%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.1%.
In March 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 65% (63.5%), where 46.2% is because of the result of current economic activity and 53.8% because of future activity (46% and 54% in the previous month, respectively), reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
By 2019, the country's Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow between 3.3% and 3.7%, compared to what was reported in 2018.
The Honduran economy, measured through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), registered a 3.7% growth in real terms in 2018, driven by the dynamism of consumption and investment of the private sector, as well as by external demand for domestic products, mainly goods for transformation (maquila), so it is expected that in 2019 the behavior will be similar, explains the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.
In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.
Low productivity, climate vulnerability and the variation of international prices are part of the challenges faced by agricultural producers in Central America and the Dominican Republic.
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) published the study "Facing External Challenges, Internal Strengths: The Economic Environment of Central America and the Dominican Republic", which analyzes the current situation in the region and its 2019 outlook.
During the first month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.9%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.
In January 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity increased to 63.1 points (59.1 in the previous month), where 49.7% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 50.3% by future activity, reports the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
The pessimism expressed by consumers in Costa Rica and the constant deterioration of business expectations in Guatemala reflect part of the complex challenges faced by Central American economies this year.
A report prepared by the School of Statistics of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) shows the negative trend that come showing the economic expectations, because between February 2018 and the same month of 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) fell 15%.
Honduran coffee growers forecast that for the 2018-2019 harvest, foreign sales income will be reduced by $300 million with respect to the previous cycle.
According to the Association of Coffee Exporters of Honduras (Adecafeh), the bad numbers for the sector continue, because so far this crop has registered a fall of $ 40 million in exports, equivalent to 400 thousand quintals, compared to the previous cycle.
Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.
According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.
It would be followed by Honduras, with expected 3.6% GDP growth, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to decline. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.
Fitch Ratings forecasts that the insurance sector in Central America will close 2018 with a year-on-year increase of almost 6% and expects that in 2019 the business will reach a very similar growth rate.
The projected increase for 2018 and 2019 would be based on the behavior of the Panama, Costa Rica and Guatemala markets, however, the increases of 5.8% and 6.1% forecast for 2018 and 2019, respectively, would represent a slowdown regarding the 8.2% growth registered in 2017.
Because of a possible decline in the dynamism of the advanced economies, the volume of Central American exports is expected to increase by 0.4% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019.
According to a report by the Secretariat of Central American Economic Integration (Sieca), a possible decline in trade dynamism in advanced economies is expected by the end of 2018, which could generate consequences in international markets, with downward scenarios in 2019, between two and three percentage points with respect to 2018. This is mainly related to growing trade tensions and more complicated market access conditions than in previous years, involving important trading partners.
Following the IMF assessment, the country's macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain strong and growth is expected to be solid in coming years.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
November 16th, 2018. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Esteban Vesperoni visited Tegucigalpa from November 12-16 to assess recent economic developments since the completion of the 2018 Article IV consultation in May and the medium-term outlook. At the end of the visit, Mr. Vesperoni issued the following statement:
The region is expected to conclude 2018 with a rise of just over 4% in the volume exported and just 3.6% in value, due to the fall in international prices of several agricultural products.
According to the International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2018, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), it is expected that this year Central America will export larger volumes at lower prices.
Excessive regulation, increased tax charges and geopolitical uncertainty are the main risks to business growth in the region for Central American CEOs.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) conducted the Global CEO Survey in the Central American region, in which a group of business executives from Central American countries and the Dominican Republic shared their opinions about their economic expectations.
Entrepreneurs in the sector reported that for the 2017-2018 harvest the volume produced amounted to 11.6 million hundredweight, 2% more than what was registered in the previous harvest.
Representatives from the Association of Sugar Producers of Honduras (Apah) announced that between the harvests of 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, the country reported an increase of 200,000 hundredweight in the volume of production, going from 11.4 million to 11.6 million.
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