Promoting a risk management culture, defining possible scenarios by turning uncertainty into a variable and preparing to safeguard the company's operational continuity are some of the most important strategies for facing the coming year.
The pandemic that generated the spread of covid-19, caused changes in all business sectors and also generated an environment of uncertainty regarding the future of the economy.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.
In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.
In Guatemala, since October 1st, shopping malls have reactivated their operations, and businessmen in the sector estimate that sales will be 40% of the levels reported before covid-19.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
Although the sector keeps its operations alive thanks to the packaging they produce for the food and cleaning industry, there is uncertainty among entrepreneurs as the demand for bags, brushes, tableware, furniture and other products has contracted.
As a result of the home quarantines that were decreed in the countries of the region in March 2020 due to covid-19, the outlook for the plastics industry fluctuates between optimism and uncertainty in market behavior.
Variations indicating a certain improvement in the world economy, the reopening of different markets and the recovery of exports are some of the factors that could influence Guatemala's economic activity to decrease less than expected in 2020.
After the industrial activity registered in May one of the lowest levels of the last years, it is expected that the sector will close 2020 in negative variations, but more moderate than those reported in the first half of the year.
The Index of Economic Activity of the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, which is calculated by Central American Business Intelligence (Cabi), states that during May and in the context of the economic crisis resulting from the outbreak of covid-19, fell by about 10% when compared to the same period in 2019.
It is estimated that in the context of the spread of covid-19 in the country, eight out of ten companies in the industrial sector have reduced their sales and six out of ten have seen their distribution capacity affected.
The Chamber of Industry of Guatemala (CIG) conducted a survey to calculate the impact of the current health crisis on the operations of the country's industrial companies. One of the most worrisome results was that most companies have reduced their cash flow.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Once the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that Guatemalan households will have reduced their demand for car insurance by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to forecast the variations in demand by Guatemalan households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Businessmen in Guatemala estimate that patients who visit the country with the aim of buying medical treatment will take between 9 months and a year to regain confidence in making the trip.
The sector is practically paralyzed, since due to the covid-19 outbreak worldwide, several countries have decided to close their borders and air terminals, and airlines are keeping their units on the ground.
New health and hygiene protocols in the establishments and the commitment to attract national tourists in an environment where short trips will be preferred, are some of the trends predicted in the new "normality" that will come after the quarantine period.
Given the quarantines decreed by most governments worldwide, it is anticipated that the habits of tourists will change dramatically in the short and medium term, as the crisis of covid-19 will leave consequences among consumers.
The sharp drop expected in the income of the tourism industry in Central America will be partially explained by the decline in hotel activity and tourist marinas.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering various scenarios for the coming months.
Some of the effects of the health emergency and the restrictions decreed by the government on the real estate sector in Guatemala are the cancellation of appointments with clients and the suspension of projects and contracts.
In the case of residential construction, businessmen anticipate that a considerable drop could be reported later, since the drop in remittances combined with the increase in unemployment, will affect the willingness to build or buy a house.
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