In the first nine months of the year, the Volume Index of Economic Activity and the sales indicator of FUSADES reported positive variations, however, they are lower compared to what was recorded in the same period of 2018.
According to the "Economic Situation Report up to November 2019", prepared by the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES), the Salvadoran economy has experienced a tendency to lose dynamism, in the second quarter of 2019, economic activity grew only 1.98%, which is lower than the 2.71% recorded a year ago.
The sales indicator declined during the first quarter and economic activity lost dynamism up to February, because of the adverse international environment and growing uncertainty.
The Sales Indicator of the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES), reported a negative variation in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2018, going from 16.5 to -7, which is explained by the behavior of the four economic sectors surveyed, reported the Foundation.
Low growth of the local economy, low generation of formal jobs, deterioration of fiscal indicators derived from the rise in the deficit and public debt, are some of the factors that have been reported during 2018.
The Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Fusades) presented the Economic Situation Report up to November 2018, in which an analysis of the country's situation is presented.
Slow growth in credit, imports of final consumer goods and tax collection are strong indicators of a decline in domestic demand.
According to the Economic Situation Report October-2018 of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), the local economy is increasing as predicted in its macroeconomic programming, and inflation is kept within the target range. However, there are some indicators of deceleration in domestic demand (including slow growth in credit, imports of final consumer goods, and tax collection).
Figures from Funde detail that last year FDI totaled $445 million, and in March 2018 economic activity grew by 2%.
The National Development Foundation (Funde) presented the results of the report "Economic and fiscal situation 4th year of the administration 2014-2019", and among the main conclusions of the study is that "...El Salvador remains behind as a recipient of resources Direct Foreign Investment in Central America, even though Guatemala and Nicaragua had falls in net inflows in 2017."
Fusades' most recent report points to the loss of 33,000 formal jobs between November 2016 and March this year, the second biggest drop in the last 25 years.
From the report by Fusades:
At the end of 2016 and early in 2017 there is clear deterioration in the country's economic conditions, which was reflected in the loss of 33,110 formal jobs between November 2016 and March 2017 and in the default of public debt in April 2017.
Although the gradual process of credit dedollarization continues, the Central Bank has warned that a preference remains on the part of savers for instruments denominated in foreign currency.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Costa Rica, in article 12, session 5768-2017, of April 26, 2017, according to the provisions of its Organic Law and based on an analysis of the international and national economic situation, decided to increase the level of the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 25 basis points (bp) to 2.50% as of April 27 of this year.
Activity in the commercial sector accounted for most of the growth in the index for economic activity in October, which in respect to the same month in 2015 registered an increase of 2.3%.
From a report by the Bank of Guatemala:
Economic activity measured by estimating the IMAE, up to October 2016, showed growth of 2.3% 1 (4.9% in October 2015).This result was driven by the positive performance experienced mainly the following economic activities: Wholesale and retail trade ; Private services; Transport, storage and communications; and Manufacturing Industries.
In the first six months of the year credit to the private sector grew by almost 11% more than in the same period in 2015.
From the executive summary of the report "behavior of the Honduran Economy - first half of 2016," by the Central Bank of Honduras:
The latest update of the World Economic Outlook, by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reveals that the growth forecast of world GDP for 2016 will be 3.1% and 3.4% for 2017; taking into account the macroeconomic implications that could come from the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
Official figures show an increase of 7% in credit extended to private sector companies up until April 2016.
From a report by the Central Bank of El Salvador:
In the international environment it was highlighted that the US maintains its strong labor market and its annual inflation is close to 1%.At the level of international prices it shows that the value of oil continues to increase, but remains at lower levels than previous years.
The Bank of Guatemala is keeping the leading rate at 3% arguing that the economy is keeping up a steady rate of growth of between 3% and 4%, in line with expectations for this year.
From the statement "Summary of the arguments to determine the level of monetary policy rate session 19-2016:
In the internal environment, the Acting Chairman highlighted the evolution of economic activity, measured by the IMAE trend-cycle, which in February recorded a variation of 3.4%, consistent with the annual estimate of economic growth of between 3.1% and 3.9% for this year. In the external sector, in February, it was noted that exports went down by 3.3%, a result of a decrease in volume (4.5%), which offset the slight increase in the average export price; while imports fell 4.2% as a result of the fall in the average price (14.0%), especially of fuels and lubricants, while the volume of imports recorded an increase (11.6%). In addition, it was noted that foreign exchange earnings from remittances continue to reflect a significant dynamism, supporting private consumption. Regarding the nominal exchange rate, it was emphasized that this is evolving according to its fundamentals, remaining stable so far this year.
In the third month of 2016 economic activity recorded an annual increase of 3.6%, mainly due to the performance of the financial and insurance sectors and agriculture and livestock.
From the monthly report by the Central Bank of Honduras:
National economic activity, monitored through the original IMAE series, showed an increase of 3.6% (3.8% in 2015) up to March 2016.
In the first quarter the economy grew by 5% compared to the same period in 2015, recording growth of 6.1% up to March.
From the report of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity:
In March, the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE by its initials in Spanish) showed growth of 4.0 percent year on year, with the annual average variation reaching 4.8 percent, and cumulative growth in the January-March period, 5.0 percent.
In the first quarter the economy grew by almost 5% compared to the same period in 2015, driven mainly by the performance of manufacturing companies in free zones.
From the Monthly Economic Activity Report by the Central Bank:
The country's output, measured by the trend-cycle series of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (MEAI), grew in the first quarter of 2016 by 4.8%, higher by 2.8 percentage points (pp) compared to the same period last year.