Arguing that in the international context a high uncertainty associated to the commercial tensions between the U.S. and China prevails, the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to lower for the fifth time so far this year the Monetary Policy Rate, this time to 3.75%.
For the monetary authority, the tension between the two world economic powers has led to a slowdown in trade flows and growth projections in our main trading partners.
Between January and July of this year in Costa Rica the Central Bank lowered the Monetary Policy Rate four times in a row, but its last decision was to maintain it at 4%.
Among the arguments of the monetary authority it is worth highlighting that the international interest rates are adjusted downward. In particular, the US Federal Reserve System reduced the reference interest rate range by 25 base points.
Arguing that there are deflationary pressures and that the unemployment rate remains high, the Central Bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate from 4.5% to 4%.
This would be the fourth reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the beginning of 2019 was at 5.25% and is currently reduced to 4%.
Arguing that deflationary forces persist and that a low rate of economic activity is reported, the Central Bank decided to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate to 4.50%.
This is the third reduction made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the end of March it decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5% and in May from 5% to 4.75%.
Arguing that the rise in international commodity prices and the redefinition of the basic tax basket could put upward pressure on inflation, the Central Bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate to 4.75%.
This is the second reduction made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the end of March it decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5%.
Arguing that there are factors that could push inflation down, in Costa Rica the Central Bank decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5%.
The inflation forecast models of the Central Bank suggest that this would converge to the target range from the second quarter of 2019 and would remain around or below the midpoint of that range during the horizon of the 2019-2020 macroeconomic programming, informed the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR).
Arguing that inflation expectations are within the target range, in Costa Rica the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged.
The last increase in the monetary policy rate was made in early November 2018, when the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) decided to raise it from 5% to 5.25%, arguing that forecasts suggest that inflation in 2019 could be above the upper limit of the target range.
Arguing that the predictions suggest that inflation in 2019 could be above the upper limit of the target range, the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to raise the monetary policy rate from 5% to 5.25%.
From the statement of the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
November 1st, 2018. The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), in the session of October 31st, 2018, decided to increase the monetary policy rate (TPM) by 25 basic points to 5.25% annually. The Board of Directors also agreed to increase the gross interest rate on one-day deposits (DON) by 19 basis points to 3.23% annually. Both increases are in effect from November 1st, 2018.
In spite of the economic progress that has been achieved in Costa Rica, employment growth has stagnated, results in education are deficient, and anti-competitive regulations continue to hinder business development.
The latest OECD economic study on Costa Rica details the factors that support the significant socio-economic achievements of the last decades, as well as the pending challenges to ensure sustainable and more inclusive growth.
Claiming that in the last few months inflation expectations have increased, the Central Bank has raised the monetary policy rate from 4.75% to 5%, from February 1st.
The Central Bank argues that the price of oil has maintained a bullish behavior since July 2017. This situation, with a backlog, is transferring to the local price of fuels, with a potential transmission in the coming months towards other prices.
For the sixth time in the year and arguing future inflationary pressures, the Central Bank has raised the monetary policy rate to 4.75% as of November 30.
Consulted on the matter by Nacion.com, economist Alberto Franco said that "...Before the absence of clear signs of greater inflationary pressures and a slowdown in local economic activity in recent months, this measure, in my opinion, could seek, fundamentally, to preserve the premium for investing in colones, in the face of a very likely increase in the reference rate of the Central Bank of the United States, the FED, in this next month of December."
Excess liquidity in the financial system, soaring loans in dollars, a rising fiscal deficit and a less favorable global environment will complicate the path in the rest of the year and in 2017.
The document"Macroeconomic Review Program 2016-2017"by the Central Bank of Costa Rica says that these four elements are the main factors that could adversely affect overall economic performance.
The report "Social Panorama of Latin America" makes clear that declines in poverty rates are directly related to the rate of growth in revenue and are not the result of distribution policies.
The recent report published by Cepal, called "Social Panorama of Latin America" highlights countries which reduced poverty levels through improved income, not redistribution of that income, as is the case of Panama, Colombia and even Uruguay, which was the country that best fought poverty between 2010 and 2014. The report explains that the general improvement in that period was mainly due to changes in average incomes.
The Central Bank has confirmed the widespread perception of economic slowdown, with growth forecast for this year falling from 3.4% to 2.8%.
The president of the organization confirmed that an excess of dollars in the foreign exchange market explains the behavior of the exchange rate, which has remained relatively low and stable in recent months.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
For the eleventh consecutive month economic activity continued to lose strength, recording in April a growth rate of just 1.68% compared to the same month in 2014.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR):
In the first quarter of 2015 (I-trim-15); the country's production, measured by the cycle trend of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), recorded an average variation of 2.0%, lower by 1.7 percentage points (pp) than the figures observed in the same period in 2014.