In the fourth quarter of 2016 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.6%, reflecting increased external demand and a relatively stable domestic demand.
From the report "Evolution of real GDP and balance of payments," by the Central Bank:
In the fourth quarter of 2016 economic activity, measured with the trend cycle of gross domestic product (GDP), grew at an annualized rate of 3.6%, reflecting stronger external demand and the positive contribution by final consumption of both households and the government.
Services and manufacturing were the sectors that accounted for most of the interannual increase of 4.1% in the IMAE up to December last year.
From a report by the Central Bank:
The production of goods and services in the country, measured by the trend cycle series of the Monthly Economic Activity Index, recorded inDecember 2016anaverage of 4.1% and 4.3% inter annually and mid yearrespectively (4.1% and 4.5% in their respective order in 2015).[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
By 2017 the Central Bank forecasts inflation of between 2% and 4% and an annual growth rate of 4.1% in gross domestic product in the 2017-18 biennium.
From the report "Macroeconomic Program 2017-2018" by the Central Bank:
For the 2017-2018 biennium, in an expectedcontext of moderate growth in our main trading partners, a gradual return to normal international liquidity and orderedincreases in the international price of basic commodities, the macroeconomic projections include the following:
The favorable conditions in the global economy allowed the country to grow by 4.25% in 2016, and administrative efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit were noted, however they will not prevent the debt /GDP ratio from growing.
From a press release by the IMF:
Costa Rica’s economy growing robustly, GDP expected to growth by 4.25% in 2016
More needs to be done to stabilize public debt levels
Key for government and Congress to reach consensus on VAT and income tax reforms proposals to help address fiscal imbalances
The performance of the service sector accounts for 80% of the annual variation of 3.9% recorded by the monthly index of economic activity in October 2016.
From the report of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity by the Central Bank:
As of October 2016, economic activity, measured by the trend cycle of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), recorded an annual rate of 3.9%, meanwhile, the average growth was 4.3%, while a year ago it was 4.5%.
The monthly index of economic activity registered a growth of 4.4%, mainly due to dynamism in services and manufacturing.
The Central Bank announced that starting from data from September 2016, they started using a new methodology to calculate the IMAE, with the reference year no longer being 1991, but the year 2012.
The choice of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States is another clear example of how the deterioration of liberal democracies enlightens the way for the emergence of authoritarian leaders.
EDITORIAL
(Both the article by Kevin Casas on Nacion.com as well as this editorial prologue on CentralAmericaData.com were written one day before the presidential election in the United States, when the prognosis was that Hillary Clinton had a more than 80% chance of win the election.)
Despite constant complaints from the export sector, the Central Bank has been clear that devaluing the Colon against the dollar would mean a reversal of the exchange rate policy.
The insistence with which exporters and tourism entrepreneurs have raised theneed to depreciate the Costa Rican currencyto recover some of the lost competitiveness in the external field was not enough to change the opinion of the monetary authority.
Domestic demand was again the main driver of the interannual increase of 4.1% in GDP for the second quarter of 2016.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The results of the second quarter of 2016 show that domestic production, measured by the trend series cycle for gross domestic product (GDP), recorded a variation of 4.1% and 4.5% annualized (ie, compared to Ist quarter of 2016).This result was mainly due to strong domestic demand, with final consumption of households being the determining factor and, to a lesser extent, evolution of external demand also contributed.Among other products, exports of medical equipment were highlighted.
In the first seven months of the year, the monthly index of economic activity grew at an annual rate of 5.1%, driven by agriculture, services and manufacturing.
From the monthly report by the Central Bank:
In the first seven months of 2016 (Jul-16) economic activity, measured by the trend cycle of the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE by its initials in Spanish), grew at annual average rates of 5.0% and 5.1% yoy.The dynamism of production has been associated with the favorable development of activities of services, manufacturing and agriculture.
Excess liquidity in the financial system, soaring loans in dollars, a rising fiscal deficit and a less favorable global environment will complicate the path in the rest of the year and in 2017.
The document"Macroeconomic Review Program 2016-2017"by the Central Bank of Costa Rica says that these four elements are the main factors that could adversely affect overall economic performance.
The economic activity index recorded a variation of 5.4% in May this year, mostly explained by a 10% increase in manufacturing activities.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
For the month of May 2016 the IMAE recorded a variation of 5.4% due to the evolution of manufacturing activities (10.7% growth), business services (9.8%) and financial intermediary and insurance services (10.4%).
In the first half of the year, with the exception of construction, the other activities have registered increases above the figures observed a year ago, with services, agriculture and manufacturing being particularly noteworthy.
From a report issued by the Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica is keeping the monetary policy rate at 1.75%.In compliance with the provisions of the Organic Law, the Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica carries out monthly analysis of the internal and external macroeconomic situation of the country.Not limited to these factors, the discussions provide the elements that support the adoption of monetary policy measures.The assessment for June was carried out in session 5727-2016 of day 29, during which the Board decided to maintain the level of the monetary policy rate at 1.75% a year.
Gross domestic product recorded a variation of 4.47% in the first quarter of 2016, driven in part by a 4% increase in final consumption expenditure.
From a report by the Central Bank "GDP and balance of payments in the first quarter of 2016":
Economic activity in the first quarter grew by 5.4% (annualized quarterly change), a result that is associated with the positive developments in external demand which increased by 17.5%.This trend was reflected in increased product placement by companies in special regimes related to the sale of equipment and medical devices as well as therecovery in the export of bananas, pineapples and services (4.9% ).
A higher rate of growth in the services sector and better performance of agricultural activities are responsible for the annual increase of 4.7% in economic activity.
From the Central Bank's Economic Situation report:
The monthly index of economic activity (IMAE), an indicator that approximates the short termgrowth of the country in Apr-16 showed a variation in the trend cycle of 4.7%, higher by 2.9 percentage points (pp) than figure in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average rate during this period was 5.0% (1.9% in Apr-15).This behavior is due to the higher growth rate of most service industries, coupled with improved performance of the agricultural and manufacturing activities which reversed and accentuated their recovery, when compared with the negative rates shown in much of 2015.