Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
Twelve months after Central America began a health and economic crisis triggered by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemala was the fastest recovering economy and Panamanian economic activity is the slowest to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In March 2020, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in the countries of the region. The highly contagious disease, which at that time had already claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, forced Central American governments to establish mobility restrictions.
Strengthening trade between the US and the region, fighting corruption in the Northern Triangle and reducing illegal migration flows, are some of the axes on which Joe Biden, the US president who has been sworn in, is expected to focus.
Biden, representative of the Democratic Party and winner of the last US elections, whose results were close, arrives at the White House to replace Donald Trump.
Because of the fall in economic activity and the restrictions imposed to contain the spread of covid-19, businessmen in Costa Rica and Panama predict that the process of economic recovery will not be completed in the near future.
In this crisis scenario generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year fall of 6.2%, a decline similar to that reported in October, when it was 6.3%.
At the end of 2020, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador remained at the bottom of the Human Development Index ranking, while Costa Rica and Panama were better evaluated.
The report entitled The Next Frontier, Human Development and the Anthropocene, which was published on December 15, 2020 at the global level, updates the Human Development Index (HDI) that is calculated by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
Although the end of the year holidays is a threat to Central America for a second wave of covid-19 infections, it is expected that total closures will not be decreed since there are currently effective health control options, and less costly for the economy.
When the first cases of covid-19 were reported in the region in March 2020, most governments decided to paralyze a large part of productive activities and decree home quarantines.
The next U.S. president is not yet known, but in the region it is expected that in an eventual new Trump administration, the focus will be on the recovery of the U.S. economy, while an eventual Biden administration would focus on countering corruption and illegal migration.
Two days after Election Day took place, the United States is experiencing an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, since because the results are closed, neither candidate can yet be declared the winner.
As of June, Central American economies began to show signs of incipient recovery and as of August, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica registered the smallest drops in their levels of economic activity.
Since March of this year, the region has faced a severe economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19. The strict quarantines decreed, the closure of borders and commercial establishments, ended up damaging the dynamism of productive activities.
Verifying the new levels of demand, offering only basic products or services, and delaying investments as much as possible to recover cash flow, are some of the strategies that businesses plan to implement to face the new commercial reality.
Because of the covid-19 outbreak in Central America, governments decreed strict home quarantines and restricted most economic activities and the movement of consumers.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Structural changes in world trade, consumer preference for living on the outskirts of cities and a growing demand for technological equipment to be able to work from home are some of the turns economies will experience in the new reality.
Most companies globally have been focused on understanding the new business environment, which derives from the change in the ways people relate to each other as a result of the covid-19 outbreak.
During the fourth quarter of 2019, Walmart's sales increased year-on-year in all countries in the region, except in Costa Rica, where they fell because of the lower dynamism of local economic activity.
The signs of recovery reported in the Costa Rican economy in the second half of 2019 do not seem to have been enough to boost retail trade, as one of the largest supermarket chains is registering a drop in sales.
Taking measures to reactivate the productive sectors, make better use of public-private partnerships and boost tourism is part of what the private sector expects from the Panamanian government in the coming year.
Six months before the Cortizo administration takes office, Panama's business sector is asking it to make the decisions the economy needs to be able to continue on the path of development, and above all, not to lose competitiveness both domestically and in relation to its peers in the region, and to be able to continue to attract foreign investment.
After the economies of the region grew by 2.6% in 2018 as a whole, the IMF estimates that 2019 would close with a rise of 2.7% and could reach 3.4% by 2020.
The document "World Economic Outlook", prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), states that for Panama the projected growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 was reduced from 5% to 4.3%.
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