During December 2019 in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 33% decrease with respect to what was reported at the end of 2018.
Analysts said they expect that the slower evolution of the world economy and adverse weather conditions could continue to affect the growth of the Honduran economy, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
In August, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity registered a 7% decrease with respect to the previous month, a drop that complements the inter-monthly drop reported in July of this year, which was 17%.
According to those consulted, factors such as the lack of political consensus, weakening of institutional credibility and the social panorama are elements that affect the business environment, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
In July, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 17% drop with respect to May, where again 49% is explained by the result of the current confidence index and 51% by future activity.
The consulted ones indicated that the potential negative impact of the unfavorable external conditions and the fall of prices of some products of exportation in the evolution of the national economy, as well as aspects related to the climate of businesses and its incidence in the new investments, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During June, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 13% decrease with respect to May, where 49% is due to the result of the current confidence index and 51% to future activity.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
In the opinion of the people consulted, in June 2019, the year-on-year inflation would be at 5.12% and for the closing of 2019 it would be 5.03% (4.84% in the survey of the previous month); meanwhile, it is estimated that for June 2020 (within 12 months) it would be at 5.00% and to December of the same year would reach 5.04%.
During the fifth month of the year it was forecast that the Confidence Index of Economic Activity was higher than the one reported in April, where 47% is explained by the result of the current confidence index and 53% by future activity.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
According to the informants, the year-on-year inflation would be of 4.78% to May 2019 and for December of this year they estimate it to be at 4.84% (4.52% in the April 2019 survey). They also foresee that for May 2020 it will be at 4.82% and at the closing of that year at 4.90%; expectations that remain within the tolerance range determined in the 2019-2020 Monetary Program (4.0% ± 1.0 percentage point).
During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).
During the third month of the year, it was forecast that GDP growth at the end of 2019 will be at 3.9%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.1%.
In March 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 65% (63.5%), where 46.2% is because of the result of current economic activity and 53.8% because of future activity (46% and 54% in the previous month, respectively), reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.
In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.