Institutional problems and lower levels of economic growth compared to other countries with the same risk rating, could cause in the future a degradation of Guatemala's debt rating.
Fitch Ratings confirmed the long-term foreign currency debt default rating of "BB", but changed the outlook from stable to negative.
The review of Guatemala's negative outlook reflects political tension and greater uncertainty in agents, as well as a constant erosion in the government's low tax collection, the rating agency argued.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
"The tightening of global financing conditions is a concern for Central American countries with large current account deficits or those highly dependent on capital flows."
According to the report "World Economic Outlook - January 2019" compiled by the World Bank (WB), countries with a high external debt burden would be at risk if a sudden change in investor confidence in emerging market and developing economies were to occur.
Arguing a moderate fiscal deficit, low level of public debt and an improvement in the country's external position, Standard & Poor´s kept the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From the press release of the Banco de Guatemala:
October 31, 2018. The risk rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) confirmed the rating of credit risk for Guatemala in BB- and maintained the stable outlook on Monday, October 29th.
Citing a long history of fiscal and monetary policy characterized by prudent management, the rating agency Moody's maintained the country's credit risk rating in Ba1.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
June 2018.Moody's Investors Service maintains the credit risk rating for Guatemala at Ba1 with a stable outlook.
Standard & Poor's has reduced Guatemala's debt rating from BB to BB-, arguing that political instability and weakness in government institutions are affecting economic growth prospects.
A series of events that began earlier this year, when President Jimmy Morales declared the Commissioner of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala,Iván Velasqueza persona non grata, and which continued with the "Corruption Pact" made by 107 deputies to approve a reform of the Penal Code to favor politicians implicated in illicit financing and to extend commutative penalties is the main reason behind the reduction in the debt rating.
"Structural weaknesses will continue to constrain Guatemala's economy and credit rating over the medium term"
From a press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-31 March 2017: Structural weaknesses will continue to constrain Guatemala's economy and credit rating over the medium term, says Fitch Ratings. Guatemala's growth rate will rise during 2017 as the effects of the 2015 political crisis gradually fade.
Fitch has also downgraded the issue ratings on Guatemala's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds to 'BB' from 'BB+', with outlook revised to Stable.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Guatemala's long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'BB' from 'BB+'. Fitch has also downgraded the issue ratings on Guatemala's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds to 'BB' from 'BB+'. The Rating Outlooks on the long-term IDRs have been revised to Stable from Negative. In addition, Fitch has downgraded Guatemala's Country Ceiling to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and affirmed the short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B'.
The U.S. could be facing a possible reduction in their risk rating, due to levels of national debt and government deficit.
Democrats and Republicans have been debating in the United States Congress trying to reach an agreement that will raise the debt ceiling and secure public finances for the future, avoiding a potential cessation of payments or a reduction in the country’s risk rating.