As a result of the economic crisis generated by the pandemic, it is estimated that four out of every five Central American companies were forced to increase their debts in order to sustain their operations.
According to the 2021 Regional Survey on economic reactivation prepared by the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of the Central American Isthmus (Fecamco), the resources obtained through indebtedness, served the companies to pay payroll, face rents and support operations.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
"The tightening of global financing conditions is a concern for Central American countries with large current account deficits or those highly dependent on capital flows."
According to the report "World Economic Outlook - January 2019" compiled by the World Bank (WB), countries with a high external debt burden would be at risk if a sudden change in investor confidence in emerging market and developing economies were to occur.
Noting the political system's inability to agree on fiscal issues, Standard & Poor's has downgraded, from BB to BB-, the rating for the country's long-term debt, giving it a negative outlook.
Costa Rica Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'BB-' On Continued Fiscal Deterioration; Outlook Is Negative
25 Feb 2016
Source: Standardandpoors.com
OVERVIEW
The combination of growing spending pressures and lack of tax reform has weakened Costa Rica's public finances and raised its vulnerability to
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
While Nicaragua and Panama have sustainable levels of public debt, for El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica the prognosis is "reserved" .
Recent analysis by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi) reflects very different fiscal situations in each country.
An article in Prensalibre.com states that "data from the report indicates that the country with the greatest debt is El Salvador, as in 2011 it reached 50% of GDP, in 2012 it increased to 52% and it is expected to reach about 54% in 2013.
Analysis of debt sustainability in Central America, economic growth, inflation, revaluation and management of the fiscal deficit.
Central America Fiscal Lens No. 5 reported that gross domestic production in Central America in 2012 amounted to U.S. $184.000 million. The fastest growing economies were Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
As for exports, although they grew by 7.1%, they were quite far from the 20.5% achieved in 2011.
Governments should act as good parents, thinking about the welfare of future generations, not just about the next election.
Governments should act as good parents, thinking about the welfare of future generations, not just about the next election.
In his article in Martes Financiero, Oscar Castaño Llorente discusses the rationale of the proposed creation of the Panama Savings Fund (FAP in Spanish), not only in its philosophical scope, but also from a practical point of view, present and future.
Fitch Ratings has analyzed patterns of economic growth in Central America, and its relationship to sovereign debt ratings.
According to Fitch Ratings, two patterns have emerged in the evolution of economic growth and public finances in Central America. The quality of sovereign credit in Central America is largely reflected by these two patterns, and this is expected to remain the case for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. could be facing a possible reduction in their risk rating, due to levels of national debt and government deficit.
Democrats and Republicans have been debating in the United States Congress trying to reach an agreement that will raise the debt ceiling and secure public finances for the future, avoiding a potential cessation of payments or a reduction in the country’s risk rating.
Central American countries alleviated much of the effects of the global crisis by issuing public debt; they now face the challenge of keeping it at reasonable levels.
Capitales.com analyzed the relation between debt and GDP for each country in Central America. They noted that although Costa Rica, Guatemala and Honduras are within acceptable levels, they are dangerously close to surpassing them.
Fitch Ratings warned that although Central American sovereigns have resisted the global crisis pretty well so far, they now require fiscal consolidation in order to maintain their credit ratings.
Summary
Fitch‐rated Central American sovereigns have thus far withstood the destabilizing effects of the global economic and financial crisis, despite monetary and exchange rate policy challenges.
Fitch downgraded Mexico's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from 'BBB+' to 'BBB' in foreign currency and from 'A-' to 'BBB+' in domestic currency.
Both ratings have a 'Stable' outlook. Additionally, the country's ceiling was reduced to 'A-' from 'A'.
Fitch downgraded Mexico's ratings because the country's fiscal situation has gotten worse with the financial crisis and a reduction in Mexican oil production.
This special report examines the channels through which Fitch-rated sovereigns in this sub-region could be impacted by external shocks, the robustness of their
various policy frameworks and the implications for creditworthiness of
increasingly challenging international conditions.
The US financial crisis has spread across the international financial system.
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