CABEI signed a memorandum of understanding with other Central American organizations to strengthen the development of the regional public debt market.
The agreement was signed by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), the Executive Secretariat of the Council of Finance Ministers of Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (SECOSEFIN), the Executive Secretariat of the Central American Monetary Council (SECMA) and the Association of Central American Stock Exchanges (BOLCEN).
As a result of the economic crisis generated by the pandemic, it is estimated that four out of every five Central American companies were forced to increase their debts in order to sustain their operations.
According to the 2021 Regional Survey on economic reactivation prepared by the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of the Central American Isthmus (Fecamco), the resources obtained through indebtedness, served the companies to pay payroll, face rents and support operations.
In this regional context of economic crisis, falling fiscal revenues and increasing public debt, Costa Rica's debt level is expected to rise to 75% of GDP by 2021, and in the case of El Salvador, the indicator could exceed 85%.
The outbreak of covid-19 in Central America forced the government to declare severe household quarantines and to restrict several economic activities, restrictions that in some cases are still in place after five months of health and economic crisis.
Standard & Poor's has given a B+ rating to the $1.5 billion debt issue that Costa Rica expects to place in the international market in November.
"Global Ratings today assigned a "B+" rating to the prospective reopening of Costa Rica's notes which have a 7.158% rate maturing in 2045 and a "B+" rating in its planned issuance of notes maturing in 2031, the latter issue still does not have a defined trading rate," the rating agency said on November 8.
Although the goal for this year was to issue $100 million in debt bonds, during the first quarter the Nicaraguan government only awarded $1.1 million, doubting the level of investor confidence.
According to the "Public Debt Report, First Quarter 2019", prepared by the Central Bank of Nicaragua, from January to March regarding Investment Securities in dollars, 1.03 million was issued at an average rate of 5.31% and an average term of 7 months.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
"The tightening of global financing conditions is a concern for Central American countries with large current account deficits or those highly dependent on capital flows."
According to the report "World Economic Outlook - January 2019" compiled by the World Bank (WB), countries with a high external debt burden would be at risk if a sudden change in investor confidence in emerging market and developing economies were to occur.
The countries facing the greatest risk of fiscal unsustainability within three years are El Salvador and Honduras, followed by Costa Rica and with less risk, Nicaragua and Panama.
From the "EconomicOutlook"section of the V Report on the State of the Region 2016:
Noting the political system's inability to agree on fiscal issues, Standard & Poor's has downgraded, from BB to BB-, the rating for the country's long-term debt, giving it a negative outlook.
Costa Rica Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'BB-' On Continued Fiscal Deterioration; Outlook Is Negative
25 Feb 2016
Source: Standardandpoors.com
OVERVIEW
The combination of growing spending pressures and lack of tax reform has weakened Costa Rica's public finances and raised its vulnerability to
For the first time in nine years, the Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark interest rate, by 0.25%, starting off a process of a gradual adjustment which will make credit more expensive.
After seven years of interest rates at historical lows, signs of recovery in the US economy have led the Federal Reserve to announce the first upward adjustment in the federal funds rate, the main reference rate for structuring interest rates in the United States and around the world.
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
With the exception of improvements in Nicaragua and Honduras, in the rest of the Central American countries problems in public finances range from latent in Panama and already serious in Guatemala, to critical in Costa Rica and El Salvador.
From the report "Macrofiscal Profiles: 4th Edition" by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
The average tax burden for the region is 13.4% of GDP, while the average public expenditure increased from 18.7% in 2013 to 19.2% at the end of 2014.
From the Introduction of the report Macrofiscal profiles in Central America, from Instituto Centroamericano de Estudios Fiscales (Icefi):
The fiscal situation has worsened in Central America in recent months, mainly due to a structural lack of sufficient resources to meet the needs of Central Americans and realize many of the commitments made by governments.
While Nicaragua and Panama have sustainable levels of public debt, for El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica the prognosis is "reserved" .
Recent analysis by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi) reflects very different fiscal situations in each country.
An article in Prensalibre.com states that "data from the report indicates that the country with the greatest debt is El Salvador, as in 2011 it reached 50% of GDP, in 2012 it increased to 52% and it is expected to reach about 54% in 2013.
With the exception of Nicaragua, fiscal deficits are growing in the rest of the isthmus, along with public debt.
From the editorial of Central America's Fiscal Lens No. 6:
Central America faces an economic slowdown during 2013: on the isthmus, all countries project growth rates which are lower than last year. The degree of openness of these small open economies makes them susceptible to changes in the international context.
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