In December 2018, it was reported that the international price of a pound of coffee fell to $1, which is equivalent to a 12% drop compared to the same month in 2017.
Data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) detail that in the last two months of last year also reported a decline in the price of the pound of coffee globally, in this case was 8% as it declined from $1.09 to $1.
Because of the low grain prices reported in 2018, it is estimated that there could be a reduction in supply, which would lead to a rebound in prices this year.
On average, the pound price of grain was close to $1.15 during 2018, however, global businessmen forecast that for this year the price could rise to $1.24 per pound.
In Costa Rica, the coffee sector expects that for the 2018-2019 harvest will be produced about 1.8 million quintals, a volume that would be 11% lower than that recorded in the 2017-2018 season.
According to forecasts by the Costa Rican Coffee Institute (Icafé), between the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 harvests, the country's production will fall from 2 million to 1.8 million quintals, a decline that would be caused by the cyclical behavior of plants and the aging of coffee plantations.
During the first six months of the year, coffee exports from Central American countries totaled $1,948 million, 9% less than what was reported in the same period in 2017.
Figures from the information system on the coffee market in Central America complied by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graphic"]
Between the 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 harvests, the difference between the average price per quintal of the country's exports and the international market price of grain has more than doubled, from $25 to $54.
According to Investing.com data and figures provided by the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafe), during coffee year 2011-2012 the average value of a 46 kg bag of coffee on the New York Market was $198.12 and the average price of Costa Rican exports was $222.76, reflecting a difference of $24.64.
In the last six years the average export price of Central American coffee has been trending downwards, with the price per kilo falling from $4.51 in March 2012, to $3.10 in the same month in 2018.
Figures from the information system on the Coffee Market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graph"]
Due to the climatic conditions predicted for the months of July and August, an increase is expected in the presence of the disease in coffee plantations in Costa Rica.
During July there is a typical decrease in rainfall known as "la canícula", a period in which Rust progresses slowly and the emergence of new lesions is less.However, at the same time there is a greater presence of spores in the lesiones favored by the warmer temperature and by weaker and less frequent rains.This situation will promote a largeincrease in the disease in the majority of the Costa Rican coffee plantations when more abundant rains return starting in August, reported the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafé).
Last year coffee sales in Central American countries totaled $3.035 million and grew by 27% compared to 2016, in contrast to the fall recorded between 2015 and 2016.
Figures from the information system on the Coffee Marketin Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData : [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graph"]
In March, international coffee prices registered a 1% reduction, mainly due to the low prices of the Colombian Milds coffee variety.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
Since August 2017, the ICO composite indicator price has declined in each month except January 2018. The composite indicator decreased by 1.1% in March 2018 to an average of 112.99 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly price since February 2016.
In the first nine months of 2017, countries in the region exported $2.795 million worth of coffee, 29% more than was sold during the same period in 2016.
Figures from the information system on the the Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
According to the union of coffee growers the threat of an increase in the incidence of rust remains high, in the regions of Coto Brus and Turrialba.
The "Early warning and recommendation system for the combat of Rust" by the Coffee Research Center, details that the threat of increase of rust remains high in the regions of Coto Brus and Turrialba. However, in the localities located in the regions of Pérez Zeledón, Zona Norte, Central Valley, Western Valley and Los Santos, the threat is gradually reduced depending on altitude and microclimates.
In the last five years, the average price of coffee exported by countries in the region fell by 33%, going from $226 to $151.
Figures from the information system on thethe Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit atCentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
Between January and September 2016 the region exported 664,000 metric tons of coffee, 5% more than in the same period in 2015.
Figures from the information system on thecoffee market in Central America complied by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [Figure caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
Coffee exports declined in the last two months because the new crop from Brazil has not yet hit the market, but consuming countries remain relatively well stocked.
From the report by the International Coffee Organization:
The ICO composite indicator rose to a 17-month high in July, although the market struggled to hold on to its early gains. Coffee exports have slowed in the last couple of months, as the new Brazilian crop has not yet come to market, but consumer stocks remain relatively well supplied. Furthermore, Conab released its survey of domestic private stocks as at the end of March 2016 as being just 5.4% lower than the previous year, down from 14.4 million to 13.6 million bags.
The variety of coffee which is considered the best quality, is starting to have disadvantages compared to the robusta variety, both due to changes in consumer trends, as well as price.
This is the warning given by experts who gathered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. According to the manager of the research firm Olam Europe, Neil Rossner, the Central American countries affected by the rust blight, "failed to meet the challenge presented by Brazil and Vietnam", the world's largest producers of grain. "The Arabica segment is in crisis and the gourmet coffee strategy is threatened," he added.