Starbucks of Condado Concepción, located on the road to El Salvador, Guatemala, is a sales point that at a distance of 15 minutes by car, has a potential market of more than 150 thousand consumers, and of this group of people 43% are interested in coffee.
Using the Geomarketing solutions we have developed for our clients, CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence team analyzed the environment of some of the main coffee shop locations in Central America. Below is an extract of the study's findings.
Because of the low grain prices reported in 2018, it is estimated that there could be a reduction in supply, which would lead to a rebound in prices this year.
On average, the pound price of grain was close to $1.15 during 2018, however, global businessmen forecast that for this year the price could rise to $1.24 per pound.
In Costa Rica, the coffee sector expects that for the 2018-2019 harvest will be produced about 1.8 million quintals, a volume that would be 11% lower than that recorded in the 2017-2018 season.
According to forecasts by the Costa Rican Coffee Institute (Icafé), between the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 harvests, the country's production will fall from 2 million to 1.8 million quintals, a decline that would be caused by the cyclical behavior of plants and the aging of coffee plantations.
During the first six months of the year, coffee exports from Central American countries totaled $1,948 million, 9% less than what was reported in the same period in 2017.
Figures from the information system on the coffee market in Central America complied by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graphic"]
Although consumption has remained stable in recent years, the Costa Rican market now demands greater quality and variety in preparation methods.
According to figures from the Chamber of Coffee Roasters, per capita demand in the country is around four kilograms of coffee beans per year, which is equivalent to two cups of coffee per person per day.
José Manuel Hernando, president of the roasters guild, explained to Nacion.com that "...
Between the 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 harvests, the difference between the average price per quintal of the country's exports and the international market price of grain has more than doubled, from $25 to $54.
According to Investing.com data and figures provided by the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafe), during coffee year 2011-2012 the average value of a 46 kg bag of coffee on the New York Market was $198.12 and the average price of Costa Rican exports was $222.76, reflecting a difference of $24.64.
In the last six years the average export price of Central American coffee has been trending downwards, with the price per kilo falling from $4.51 in March 2012, to $3.10 in the same month in 2018.
Figures from the information system on the Coffee Market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graph"]
Due to the climatic conditions predicted for the months of July and August, an increase is expected in the presence of the disease in coffee plantations in Costa Rica.
During July there is a typical decrease in rainfall known as "la canícula", a period in which Rust progresses slowly and the emergence of new lesions is less.However, at the same time there is a greater presence of spores in the lesiones favored by the warmer temperature and by weaker and less frequent rains.This situation will promote a largeincrease in the disease in the majority of the Costa Rican coffee plantations when more abundant rains return starting in August, reported the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafé).
Last year coffee sales in Central American countries totaled $3.035 million and grew by 27% compared to 2016, in contrast to the fall recorded between 2015 and 2016.
Figures from the information system on the Coffee Marketin Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData : [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graph"]
In Costa Rica, a new bill has been presented to grant resources at a preferential rate to producers, aimed particularly at the smaller ones.
According to the bill, which received a positive ruling in committee and now must go to the Plenary, the fund will be financed by a contribution of 5% from the liquid surplus of the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafé), resources from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock and funds recovered from the Trust Fund for Coffee Producers Affected by Rust and the Coffee Plantation Renewal Plan.
In March, international coffee prices registered a 1% reduction, mainly due to the low prices of the Colombian Milds coffee variety.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
Since August 2017, the ICO composite indicator price has declined in each month except January 2018. The composite indicator decreased by 1.1% in March 2018 to an average of 112.99 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly price since February 2016.
In the first nine months of 2017, countries in the region exported $2.795 million worth of coffee, 29% more than was sold during the same period in 2016.
Figures from the information system on the the Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
According to the union of coffee growers the threat of an increase in the incidence of rust remains high, in the regions of Coto Brus and Turrialba.
The "Early warning and recommendation system for the combat of Rust" by the Coffee Research Center, details that the threat of increase of rust remains high in the regions of Coto Brus and Turrialba. However, in the localities located in the regions of Pérez Zeledón, Zona Norte, Central Valley, Western Valley and Los Santos, the threat is gradually reduced depending on altitude and microclimates.
In the last five years, the average price of coffee exported by countries in the region fell by 33%, going from $226 to $151.
Figures from the information system on thethe Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit atCentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
Between January and September 2016 the region exported 664,000 metric tons of coffee, 5% more than in the same period in 2015.
Figures from the information system on thecoffee market in Central America complied by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [Figure caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]