The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
Central America must be the driving force behind a globally accepted document that will be vital for the recovery of the global economy and tourism in particular.
The generation of a physical or digital document of global acceptance (like national passports) that certifies that the bearer has been vaccinated against Covid-19 will facilitate the movement of people that has been severely restricted as part of the measures adopted by governments, both locally and internationally, to contain the pandemic.
After a 50% year-on-year fall in new car sales in 2020, Panamanian businessmen expect a 25% increase in the number of units sold in the local market by 2021.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Due to the economic crisis it is estimated that by the end of 2020 Panama will have 400 thousand new unemployed and the unemployment rate will climb to 25%, assuming that the country generates between 45 thousand to 50 thousand jobs annually, it will take about eight years for the recovery to take place.
The outbreak of covid-19 caused a serious economic crisis in the country, since due to the spread of the disease the authorities have decreed severe home quarantines, mobility restrictions and have limited some productive activities.
Food, beverages, liquor, household and personal care items are the categories that are expected to drive the rise in consumption levels in Central America during the last month of the year.
Despite the fact that 2020 has been a complex year for all business sectors, due to the covid-19 outbreak that generated a serious economic crisis in all Central American countries, sales are expected to increase considerably in December.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Because of the economic crisis, Foreign Direct Investment flows have practically vanished, and in order to attract the few investments that are projected for next year, countries are expected to compete by offering incentives and aid programs for businesses.
The covid-19 outbreak dissipated the investment intentions of companies globally. At the beginning of the fourth quarter of the year, there are signs that business confidence has begun to recover; however, pessimism among investors is expected to continue next year.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
When the country's authorities begin to lift the restrictions that have been taken to prevent the spread of covid-19, it is predicted that in the meat sector, sales of chicken could contract by 2%.
Through a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
Measuring sales performance, observing trends and anticipating the impact that the crisis will have on the market in which each company operates has never been more important, and in this context, accurate data management and analysis becomes essential.
"... Twelve years ago, in the midst of the economic downturn in 2008, British Airways (BA) was cutting costs across the organization.
As the economies of Central America begin to relax the restrictions that have been taken to prevent the spread of covid-19, sales of pickup trucks are predicted to be among the most contracted.
Using a demand-income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations that household demand for different goods and services will undergo as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 pass and mobility restriction measures are lifted in the countries of the region.
Given the health crisis, the food and beverage sector would be partly affected by the drop in the production of soft drinks and alcoholic beverages and the decline in sales of fish and seafood preparations.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies, depending on the country, sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
Once the economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in Panamanian household demand for different goods and services as the most critical phases in the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
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