In the same report Standard & Poor's has unified the risk ratings for both local and foreign currency, at grade BB, due to adjustments in methodology.
Standard & Poor's has rated Costa Rica’s foreign currency as grades BB / B , based on the economic growth and political stability in the country, despite its high fiscal deficit, rising external debt, and a political stalemate that is preventing legislative approval of the tax reform bill under discussion.
The debacle that has befallen Greece has been no impediment to its former Prime Minister Papandreou, who is touring the world giving advice on government and economy.
Public policy analyst Juan Carlos Hidalgo on his blog ‘Por la libre’ on Elfinancierocr.com offers an analysis of the Greek crisis and the accuracy with which the current government of Costa Rica is following in the footsteps of the failed Georgious Papandreou’s government.
The country's economy, which has not yet recovered from the crisis of 2008, will suffer from a deficit for which the government can not find effective solutions.
The unbridled growth of government spending in recent years, growth which has only just been moderated, has brought the fiscal deficit to 5% of GDP annually. The proposed tax reform that President Chinchilla presented to the Costa Rican Assembly is not only a legal and political quagmire, but if approved, would not solve the problem of the public deficit, because of the cuts made to the original project.
Unions and business associations are insisting that the economy will be damaged if the proposed tax reform is approved by the Executive.
The private sector is objecting to the negative impact that the reform will have on the national productive apparatus and consumers. Unions for their part say the new tax (Value Added Tax, VAT) will affect the finances of Costa Rican families.
In July, the difference between total revenue and expenditure was $87 million. The deficit does not include interest expenses, which amount to $527 million a year, 17.7% more than recorded in July 2010.
A press release by ALDESA reads:
“The July figures for revenues and expenditures by the Central Government are not very encouraging and continue to show the existence of harmful primary deficit.
Stable interest rates and a downward exchange rate have characterized the economy in recent months.
Although interest rates have remained low and there is still room for them to fall further, the growing fiscal deficit, which has forced the government to turn to the markets to raise funds to pay interest on the debt, is threatening this possibility.
The fiscal deficit increased by 26.5% in the first 4 months of the year and has reached $733.3 million.
The amount is equivalent to 1.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the same period in 2010, the amount was $579.8 million.
"We are seeing a larger financial deficit than the previous year in terms of GDP, which is consistent with the current projection that the deficit in 2011 would exceed 5% of GDP, " said the Finance Minister in office, Randall Garcia in an article publishes by ADN.es, "He reiterated the need for the country to adopt a tax reform ..."
Costa Rica forecasts a 10% deficit in 2016 - more than $ 4.000 million – if the current trend continues without a reform.
As noted by Aldesa, the central government deficit amounted to almost $ 1.970 million. The shortfall means 5.3% of the national GDP and a growth of 73% over the total deficit of 2009, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance.
Stock Market company, Aldesa, published its “Economic Situation in Costa Rica”.
Monthly Economic Activity Index
The most recent estimate in the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (MIEA) for the month of October shows an average variation of 4.7%, reflecting a significant weakening of the manufacturing sector which in turn is offset by the improved performance of sectors such as agriculture , trade and transport.
A critical view of the simplistic methods used in calculating the tax burden that supports an economy.
When analyzing a tax reform proposal, the first argument considered is what is the percentage of taxes collected by the state in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country.
Juan Carlos Hidalgo, on his blog at Elfinancierocr.com, shows with solid arguments, the fallacy of comparing, without thorough analysis, the public figures of the ratio of tax revenue to GDP, which leads to erroneous conclusions which usually hide the main problem: the spending inefficiency demonstrated by the state with the money collected through taxes.
Slow recovery tied to a lagging U.S. economy, 3% growth in 2010 due to increased domestic consumption and rising remittances and international trade.
The countries in Central America are recovering gradually, led by a rebound indomestic demand (following its sharpcontraction in 2009), which has partly spilled over into imports. Pickups in exports and morerecently remittances have been further positive developments.
Based on prior evidence, the much needed fiscal reform in Costa Rica may take a year and a half to become a reality.
The country experienced a fiscal deficit of $997 million in the first 8 months of this year, 70% more than the same period of 2009.
The approval of the fiscal reform promoted by the Chinchilla administration could become a very long process, taking between 10 and 44 months, according to experts.
Central America may be directly impacted by the slowdown in the recovery of the world economy.
For the time being, the region's measures of external and internal demand do not seem affected by the threat of lower growth rates for the economies of partner developed countries. Some central banks had raised their expectations but, in view of the risks, they are likely to revise their growth predictions back to original levels between 2.0% and 2.7%.