Lack of fiscal reform continues to erode Costa Rica's public finances, constraining its long-term growth prospects and highlighting its vulnerability to external shocks.
Fitch Ratings has changed the outlook from stable to negative, due to "diminished flexibility to finance its rising budget deficits and public debt burden, as well as persistent institutional gridlock preventing progress on reforms to correct the fiscal imbalance."
EDITORIAL
Costa Rica is running out of time.The decision taken by Fitch Ratings to reduce from the outlook for the sovereign debt rating from stable to negative reflects a serious problem that the country faces and shows us that, in the not very long term, the rating agency could lower this rating, currently in the BB category.
In line with warnings from other ratings agencies regarding the serious fiscal problem and the lack of political will to solve it, Moody's has downgraded its rating from Ba1 to Ba2 with a negative outlook.
New York, February 09, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Costa Rica's government bond rating by one notch to Ba2 from Ba1, and maintained the negative outlook on the rating.
The debt rating has been lowered from BB + to BB, due to the high fiscal deficit and the lack of implementation of reforms to start correcting the problem.
From a press release by Fitch:
Fitch Ratings-New York-19 January 2017: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Costa Rica's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency IDRs to 'BB' from 'BB+'. The Outlooks were revised to Stable from Negative.
Standard & Poor's cites persistent difficulties in approving a fiscal reform in the short term, given the political fragmentation that exists in the Legislature.
Analyst Joydeep Mukherji said "... two previous governments have tried to make a fiscal reform and failed and that the government of Luis Guillermo Solis has had difficultyconvincing the Legislative Assembly ...".
In the latest update to its emerging market index the entity changed its view of the relative weight of Costa Rican bonds from "Marketweight" to "Underweight".
An article in Elfinancierocr.com notes that "... The opinion of JP Morgan in making this move is centered around the fiscal deterioration suffered by Costa Rica and they argue that this has been sustained and that there is little chance that this trend will be reversed. Moreover, the document says, the fiscal deficit continues to grow and even increased during the first quarter of 2015. "
In a clear warning signal, the ratings agency has changed the outlook for Costa Rica's sovereign debt from stable to negative, arguing that there is a lack of measures to reduce the fiscal deficit.
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 January 2015: Fitch Ratings has revised the Rating Outlook on Costa Rica's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB+'. The issue ratings on Costa Rica's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have been affirmed at 'BB+'. The Short-term foreign currency IDR has been affirmed at 'B' and the Country Ceiling at 'BBB-'.
The lack of long-term solutions for reducing the fiscal deficit and improving the structure of public spending threaten the investment grade rating given by Moody's in 2010.
In January 2014, current account expenditure increased by almost 8% compared to January 2013, with the category of Remuneration up 11%.
The monthly figures from the Central Government Revenues, Expenditures and Financing report published by the Ministry of Finance of Costa Rica, shows that the increase in total revenues in January 2014 was almost 11%, which meant a reduction in the fiscal deficit financial compared to GDP of 0.7%.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed its rating at BB + but points to the fiscal deficit as a credit weakness.
The rating agency Fitch Ratings announced that it will keep the BB + rating for Costa Rica, maintaining the stable outlook. However, it noted that the high budget deficit represents a weakness for the country.
"Costa Rica's ratings are supported by its political stability and strong indicators of human development and governance in relation to its peers," said a statement from the ratings agency.
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