After the multi-sector dialogue in Costa Rica was concluded, the main risk qualifiers agree that because the agreements signed to reduce the deficit are not enough, the government should execute its fiscal policies in a timely manner.
Although Costa Rica's fiscal situation was already precarious before the health and economic crisis that led to the covid-19 outbreak began, the scenario started to worsen since March of this year.
The Costa Rican government is facing a complex scenario, since by not achieving consensus to access international loans, it will be forced to seek domestic funding sources, which would put pressure on the exchange rate and interest rates to rise.
The economic crisis that the country is going through due to the outbreak of covid-19 ended up sharpening the country's fiscal situation.
Faced with increasing chaos in Costa Rica due to demonstrations and blockades, a part of the business sector decided, unilaterally, to negotiate with representatives of the movement that incites to protest, and to reject the official call by the President of the Republic.
After the Alvarado administration agreed to backtrack on the proposal to negotiate a $1.75 billion loan with the IMF, it is predicted that next year the government will depend on domestic debt to finance its expenditures.
Although the Legislative Assembly approved the issuance of $1.5 billion of debt in the international market, Fitch Ratings believes that in the coming years there could be renewed uncertainty about the sources of financing for the Costa Rican government.
The rating agency reduced the long-term and senior unsecured bond issuer ratings of the Costa Rican government from Ba2 to Ba1 and changed the outlook to negative.
According to Moody's, among the main factors behind the decline is the continued and projected worsening of debt metrics in the back of large deficits despite fiscal consolidation efforts.
In Costa Rica, the Alvarado administration will ask the Congress for authorization to issue Eurobonds in international markets for at least $5 billion.
The Finance Minister, Rocío Aguilar, reported on November 20 that the country's public debt plans include the possibility of attracting more resources in the international market. One of the alternatives would be to place $5 billion in the next four years.
Fitch Ratings reported that the country is under observation and for now maintains the rating at BB, awaiting what happens with the fiscal reform and the payment of government debt at the end of the year.
Fitch Ratings, a U.S. risk rating agency, reported on November 15th that Costa Rica would be close to a sovereign rating downgrade because of the country's public finances situation.
The Panamanian government issued $550 million of sovereign debt in the international market, expiring in 2050 and with an average yield of 4.92%.
According to information from the country's authorities, the resources collected will be used to partially finance the investment plan contemplated in the General State Budget for fiscal year 2018.
Moody's downgraded the long-term issuer ratings and the Costa Rican government's unsecured bonds.
Yesterday the risk rating agency reported that expectations of a continued decline in fiscal indicators and evidence of increased financing needs are some of the reasons behind the decision to revise the country's debt rating.
Rocio Aguilar, Finance Minister, explained to Crhoy.com that Moody's warning is "...
Up to August, the external and internal public debt amounted to $18.463 billion, equivalent to 23.4% of the country's Gross Domestic Product.
According to figures from the Ministry of Public Finance, in the last nine years the debt to GDP ratio has slightly varied, between 23.3% and 24.8%.
Regarding the country's indebtedness level, Abelardo Medina, senior economist at the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies, said to Dca.gob.gt that "... It is interesting to note that, although Guatemala reports the lowest level of debt in the region and one of the lowest in the world, the evaluation given by risk rating agencies does not reach investment level. This is a product of political instability but, especially, it is due to the limited size of its fiscal revenues."
The Central Bank explained that the short-term loan of almost $870 million to the Ministry of Finance will have no impact on inflation.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
September 25, 2018.In accordance with what is authorized by Costa Rican legislation, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) agreed, on Tuesday, September 25, 2018, to the acquisition of Treasury Notes, issuedby the Ministry of Finance, for an amount of ¢498,858.8 million.
The increase in domestic debt with terms of less than one year and the growing rise in interest rates are some of the threats that Costa Rica's public finances continue to face.
According to the 2017 Annual Report by the General Comptroller of the Republic, between 2016 and 2017 the percentage of domestic debt with a term of less than one year increased from 15% to 18%, the variable rate rose from 12% to 20%, and the interest rate in dollars grew from 19% to 24%.
The Ministry of Finance in Costa Rica has announced that between today and August 3 it will try to raise, through means of a direct issue in the local stock market, about $879 million.
Authorities reported that two issues of securities will be offered for sale on the Siopel platform of the National Stock Exchange.The first, of $284 million, will have a gross rate of 9% with maturity in 2020, and the second of $595 million, with a gross rate of 10.79% with maturity in 2028.
In the view of Moody's, Fitch and S & P, the latest projections of public debt and fiscal deficit by the Central Bank of Costa Rica, further worsen the outlook for the debt rating.
Last week the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) released a report in which it explained that for this year it is expected that the public debt with respect to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will reach 53.8%, and by 2019 this indicator will reach 58.4%.