Moody's maintained the Salvadoran government's long-term and senior unsecured issuer rating at B3, but decided to change the outlook to negative, a downgrade that reflects persistent concerns about public debt sustainability.
The negative outlook reflects the credit risks associated with the implementation risks of its upcoming fiscal adjustment efforts, high liquidity risks driven by large gross financing needs in 2021-23, and persistent concerns about debt sustainability despite an expected fiscal adjustment, the rating agency explained.
Arguing that the pandemic has had a negative effect on the local economy and Panamanian public finances, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country's sovereign rating from BBB to BBB-.
Regarding forecasts for 2021, the rating agency expects Panama to experience an economic recovery with a real growth of 9.2%, driven by the economic opening, public investment projects such as the construction of Metro Line 3, exports from the copper mine, and the recovery of domestic consumption. This growth trend is expected to be maintained by 2022, informed the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Panama (MEF).
Based on the argument that there is no significant fiscal consolidation and sustained economic recovery, the rating agency decided to downgrade the government's long-term issuer rating perspective from stable to negative.
Although the outlook was modified, Moody's decided to maintain the long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings at Baa1.
Standard & Poor's downgraded the foreign debt rating from B+ to B with a negative outlook, arguing that there is uncertainty due to the lack of flexibility of the Alvarado administration in implementing fiscal policy in the country.
The negative perspective in the new risk note, anticipates that there is a possibility that in the next 12 months the rating will be degraded again, if the authorities adopt policies that damage the country's financial profile.
The rating agency maintained BBB's long-term issuer default rating, but decided to change the risk outlook from stable to negative, arguing that the debt burden will continue to increase in 2020.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The revision of Panama's Outlook to Negative reflects a marked deterioration in fiscal deficits and a significant increase of the government's debt burden, related to accumulation of arrears by previous administration and higher fiscal deficit targets under the modified Fiscal Responsibility Law. In addition, the recent greater-than-anticipated growth deceleration creates additional challenges for fiscal consolidation.
Arguing that continuity in economic policies is expected after the change of administration in January 2020, Standard & Poor's maintained the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From S&P report:
S&P Global Ratings confirmed its long-term sovereign credit ratings of "BB-" in long-term foreign currency and "BB" in Guatemala. The outlook for our long-term ratings remains stable. We also affirmed our short-term 'B' foreign and local currency ratings in Guatemala, the international agency reported.
Fitch Ratings decided to keep the country's risk rating at B, but changed the outlook from negative to stable, arguing that there are some signs of stabilization of Central Bank reserves and commercial bank deposits.
The revision of the outlook reflects the stabilization of central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits, a significant fiscal adjustment and social security reform that have reduced domestic financing needs and a pronounced external rebalancing that has facilitated the external financing requirement, the rating agency reported.
Fitch Ratings kept in B+ with a negative outlook, the sovereign debt rating, arguing that "the weaknesses in public finances are reflected and the political stagnation has prevented the timely approval of reforms that address these problems."
The new fiscal rule has not been approved, and the Congressional authorization requirement for foreign loans periodically restricts Costa Rica's financial flexibility, is another of the risk qualifier's arguments.
Because of its financial and competitive strength, the rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed that the risk rating as an issuer of long-term debt is "A", with a stable outlook.
The ratings reflect an underlying asset that is critical not only for Panama, but also for international trade, as evidenced by its stable volume performance, solid competitive position and well-diversified cargo mix, the ratings company explained.
Institutional problems and lower levels of economic growth compared to other countries with the same risk rating, could cause in the future a degradation of Guatemala's debt rating.
Because of its strong and stable macroeconomic performance, Fitch confirmed the long-term foreign currency rating at 'BBB', with a stable outlook.
For the risk qualifier, the country's macroeconomic performance has driven a sustained increase in per capita income, and it also forecasts that GDP growth will recover to 5.8% in 2019 and 5.5% in 2020, above countries with similar ratings.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
The rating agency reduced the long-term and senior unsecured bond issuer ratings of the Costa Rican government from Ba2 to Ba1 and changed the outlook to negative.
According to Moody's, among the main factors behind the decline is the continued and projected worsening of debt metrics in the back of large deficits despite fiscal consolidation efforts.
Fitch Ratings reported that the country is under observation and for now maintains the rating at BB, awaiting what happens with the fiscal reform and the payment of government debt at the end of the year.
Fitch Ratings, a U.S. risk rating agency, reported on November 15th that Costa Rica would be close to a sovereign rating downgrade because of the country's public finances situation.
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