After having recorded a 4% fall in GDP in 2018, the Central Bank authorities forecast that the Nicaraguan economy will begin to recover in the 2020-2021 period.
Last year, bottled water sales in Costa Rica were estimated at $89 million and they are expected to increase up to $106 million in 2023, a behavior explained by the downward trend in the consumption of carbonated beverages.
Although companies such as Florida Ice & Farm Co (Fifco) and Coca Cola Femsa have the opportunity to grow in the Costa Rican market, they will also face competition from new entrants such as Premium Brands.
Faced with the threat of a global economic slowdown and the possibility of the U.S. entering recession next year, businessmen in the region argue that to mitigate possible adverse effects, it is key to diversify export destinations.
Market analysts assure that the slowdown in U.S. economic activity is already a reality, and that what is still not clear, is the possibility that the economy will go into recession next year.
The outlook for some economies in the region for 2019 is not the best: in Nicaragua GDP is expected to fall between 5% and 7%, while in Costa Rica the growth estimate at the end of the year was reduced from 3.2% to 2.2%.
The estimates of the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented in its "Informe de Coyuntura - Julio 2019", indicate that by 2019 an economic contraction of between 5.4% and 6.8% will be reported in the country.
Nicaragua's fishing and aquaculture production in 2019 will be close to 175 million pounds, 6% less than production in 2018.
In the Production, Consumption and Trade Plan for the 2019-2020 cycle, the government expects a 6.4% year-on-year decline, mainly because of the implementation of management and sustainability measures for sea cucumbers, such as the closure of two additional months for all species and the permanent closure for cucumber, Café y Carajo, explains the document.
The Nicaraguan government projects for the 2019-2020 agricultural cycle the planting of 1.5 million hectares of land, 3% more than in the previous period, a very unbelievable forecast for businessmen.
The 2019-2020 Production, Consumption and Commerce Plan, which was prepared by the government without the support of the private sector, explains that it is projected to plant 1.5 million hectares and harvest 1.4 million hectares, which would represent a 3.1% increase compared to the previous cycle.
Low productivity, climate vulnerability and the variation of international prices are part of the challenges faced by agricultural producers in Central America and the Dominican Republic.
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) published the study "Facing External Challenges, Internal Strengths: The Economic Environment of Central America and the Dominican Republic", which analyzes the current situation in the region and its 2019 outlook.
The barriers imposed by the Honduran and Panamanian markets, coupled with the negative effect of the recent tax reform, force Nicaraguan cattle ranchers to predict a bleak future.
Figures from the National Livestock Commission of Nicaragua (Conagan) specify that between 2017 and 2018 meat exports from Nicaragua fell by 7.9%, from $587 million to $541 million, and in the case of dairy, the fall was 8.4%, going down from $177 million to $162 million.
The pessimism expressed by consumers in Costa Rica and the constant deterioration of business expectations in Guatemala reflect part of the complex challenges faced by Central American economies this year.
A report prepared by the School of Statistics of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) shows the negative trend that come showing the economic expectations, because between February 2018 and the same month of 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) fell 15%.
If the country does not provide an early solution to the socio-political crisis it has been going through since April 2018, it is projected that the economy could decline between 7% and 11% during 2019.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented the "Informe de Coyuntura" (Situation Report), which explains that if the socio-political crisis continues this year there will be a greater fall in the economy compared to the 4% reported in 2018.
In 2018, the number of international tourists who arrived in the countries of the region fell 2% compared to 2017, in contrast to the increases of 4% and 3% recorded in North and South America, respectively.
According to the report of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) presented on January 21, the results recorded last year in Central America are partly because of behavior in some countries, as in the cases of Panama and Nicaragua were recorded declines in tourism.
The exporters' guild estimates that the new year will be difficult for the country's economy, since there are multiple factors that threaten the growth of foreign sales.
The Association of Producers and Exporters of Nicaragua (APEN) reported that the expectation of year-on-year increase in export revenue for 2018 ranged between 6% and 10%, however, there was a 1% decrease.
Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.
According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.
It would be followed by Honduras, with expected 3.6% GDP growth, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to decline. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.
At the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018, touristic companies in Nicaragua were reporting a good performance, but the political situation in the country has generated a crisis that is still unsolved.
In 2017, tourism generated $840 million in revenue for the Nicaraguan economy, 31% more than in 2016, growth that improved the companies' expectations at the beginning of the year, since in the first quarter of 2018 the forecasts were that by the end of this year revenues could reach $900 million.
Fitch Ratings forecasts that the insurance sector in Central America will close 2018 with a year-on-year increase of almost 6% and expects that in 2019 the business will reach a very similar growth rate.
The projected increase for 2018 and 2019 would be based on the behavior of the Panama, Costa Rica and Guatemala markets, however, the increases of 5.8% and 6.1% forecast for 2018 and 2019, respectively, would represent a slowdown regarding the 8.2% growth registered in 2017.