The union estimates that agricultural production cycle 2016-17 will be 5.5 million hundredweight, exceeding the 4.1 million hundredweight produced in the previous harvest.
The Union of Agricultural Producers of Nicaragua (UPANIC) based its forecast on the 68,000 acres of land to be cultivated during the different sub-cycles of production in the 2016/17 cycle.
It is anticipated that international metal prices will rise by 11% due to a reduction in supply and a slight increase is projected in the prices of agricultural commodities.
From a report by the World Bank, "Commodity Markets Outlook":
Prices for most industrial commodities continued to rise in the fourth quarter from their lows in early 2016, while most agricultural prices declined.
The Central Bank estimates that GDP will grow between 4.5% and 5%, and inflation will be in the range of between 5.5% and 6.5%.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank:
The President of the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), Ovidio Reyes Ramirez, presented on January 5, 2017 an overall assessment of the performance of the Nicaraguan economy in 2016 and also the prospects for 2017, noting that it is estimated that robust economic growth will be achieved of between 4.6 and 4.9% for 2016 for the sixth consecutive year, and annual inflation of 3.13 percent.
Fitch foresees returns for Nicaraguan banks, however the result will not be as good for the banking industry in Panama, Guatemala or El Salvador.
From Fitch's report "2017 Outlook: Central American and Dominican Republic Banks"
The 2017 Central American bank rating outlook is stable for 2017, reflecting slight changes in growth and financial performance, according to a new Fitch Ratings report. The evolution of some factors, such as interest rates and private investment, or the emergence of events that could increase reputation risk could alter the banking outlook.Stable Rating Outlook: The ratings of most banks in the region have a stable outlook, reflecting the fact that their credit profile will not undergo significant changes in Fitch's base scenario.Movements in the ratings will be derived mainly from adjustments in ratings of parent banks or sovereign ratings, or of unanticipated events.
According to Fitch Ratings growth in the insurance sector in Central America in 2017 will be driven by the markets of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
From the report "Outlook 2017: Insurance in Central America" by Fitch Ratings:
Rating Outlook Stable:Fitch Ratings´outlook for insurance ratings in Central America is stable. The agency believes that there is a limited probability of rating adjustments in the next 12 to 18 months, which could lead to significant changes in the risk profile or the weighted support in some cases.
The sector expects to close the year with a decline in the value of exports due to low international prices, but with an increase of about 10% in total production.
Textile entrepreneurs estimate that they may end the year withclose to the planned target of 500 million square meters of production, but below the $1.5 billion in export value.
Entrepreneurs in the commercial sector project closing 2016 with growth of 8%, driven by a foreseen rebound in the last quarter.
The commercial sector expects to close 2016 with sales of $2 billion, and does not foresee that the presidential elections will affect the upward trend that has been seen in commercial activity throughout the year.
The economic expectations of entrepreneurs have fallen, in particular because of the business climate, with projections for the rest of 2016 being for less private and public investment.
From the Executive summary of the II Economic Situation Report by Funides:
In the first four months of 2016 the Nicaraguan economy behaved as predicted by FUNIDES in its first Economic Situation Report, with the exception of exports, which were projected to be more vigorous than were actually recorded.
Estimates of supply, demand, trade and prices of major agricultural commodities across 41 countries in 12 geographical regions.
Summary of the OECD-FAO report, Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025:
The Agricultural Outlook 2016‑2025 is a collaborative effort of OECD and FAO. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an assessment of medium‑term prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The Outlook provides supply, demand, trade and price estimates of major agricultural commodities for 41 countries and 12 geographical regions. The special theme chapter of this year’s edition focusses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub‑Saharan Africa.
Funides projections for conditions in 2016 are similar to those of 2015 and it estimates that the economy will grow by between 4.5 and 4.7%.
From the executive summary of the "First Economic Situation Report for 2016 " by Funides:
Growth projections for the world economy in 2016 have decreased from 3.4 to 3.2 percent according to the latest projections by the International Monetary Fund.
The identification of Grupo Waked in a money laundering network could result in significant changes in the representations of brands marketed in the country.
An article on Prensa.com cites Jorge Garcia Icaza, president of the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Agriculture of Panama, who emphasized that restraint should excerised when dealing with the case in order to minimize damage which it is estimated could be caused, especially in relation to jobs in the companies under question.
The Nicaraguan economy continues to record high growth rates and sustainable macroeconomic policies, with an average GDP growth of 5.2% in recent years.
Statement issued by the IMF:
IMF Concludes Staff Visit to Nicaragua
Press Release No. 16/191
April 29, 2016
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Gerardo Peraza visited Managua during April 25–29, 2016.
Mining companies anticipate good results for 2016, not only because of the expected improvement in international prices but also due to the dynamism of local construction.
Non-metallic mining is the category, in the view of representatives of the sector, which achieved the best performance this year because of the construction boom in the country, which is demanding ever more limestone, sand and other essential materials used for building.
The IMF noted the positive evolution of all the country's economic indicators, and the drastic fall in poverty, with an increase of 33% in per capita consumption.
From a press release issued by the IMF:
On January 28, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with Nicaragua.
Economic developments in 2015 have been broadly positive.
Fitch forecasts growth of 3.5% in the region in 2016, due to increased competition and currency devaluations in some markets.
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings - San Salvador - (January 21, 2016): The Outlook for the Insurance Sector in Central America and the Dominican Republic is stable, according to a report by Fitch Ratings.