produce between 8 and 9 million pairs of shoes, a figure that would double that reported in 2020 and generate revenues for companies of more than $120 million.
In the first weeks of the year, shoe sales in the Nicaraguan market showed dynamism, as more than one million pairs were sold due to the start of the school year, according to executives of the Nicaraguan Chamber of Leather and Footwear (Camcunic).
After the political crisis the country went through in 2018 and the health crisis it faced in 2020, businessmen maintain hopes that tourism activities will recover in 2021 and in the following years return to the path of growth.
The Nicaraguan tourism sector has been rained on over the past three years. In April 2018, companies engaged in these activities began to experience a crisis, as a political and social crisis occurred in the country, which ended up affecting the productive activity.
Because only two airlines currently operate in Nicaragua and there is no certainty when other companies will reactivate their flights, entrepreneurs in the tourism sector remain uncertain.
Due to the covid-19 outbreak, the country was left without an air connection, as the airlines decided to suspend their operations due to the low number of travelers who were willing to travel in this context of the pandemic.
In the context of the health crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19, businessmen of the sector foresee that at the end of 2020 the tourism industry will add revenues of about $176 million, an amount that would be 66% less than that reported in 2019.
The estimates of the National Chamber of Tourism of Nicaragua (Canatur), are more pessimistic than the projections of the Nicaraguan Institute of Tourism (Intur), since according to the business association the income will amount to $176 million and according to the government institution it will add $216 million at the end of the year.
Promoting a risk management culture, defining possible scenarios by turning uncertainty into a variable and preparing to safeguard the company's operational continuity are some of the most important strategies for facing the coming year.
The pandemic that generated the spread of covid-19, caused changes in all business sectors and also generated an environment of uncertainty regarding the future of the economy.
Since the beginning of the political crisis in 2018, the activity began to decline, the trend continued in 2019 and by 2020 the expectation is that the fall in investments in the sector will be more acute, mainly private ones.
Official data indicates that between 2017 and 2018 investment in private construction projects decreased by 17%, from $1,106 million to $914 million.
The next U.S. president is not yet known, but in the region it is expected that in an eventual new Trump administration, the focus will be on the recovery of the U.S. economy, while an eventual Biden administration would focus on countering corruption and illegal migration.
Two days after Election Day took place, the United States is experiencing an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, since because the results are closed, neither candidate can yet be declared the winner.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
Although the sector keeps its operations alive thanks to the packaging they produce for the food and cleaning industry, there is uncertainty among entrepreneurs as the demand for bags, brushes, tableware, furniture and other products has contracted.
As a result of the home quarantines that were decreed in the countries of the region in March 2020 due to covid-19, the outlook for the plastics industry fluctuates between optimism and uncertainty in market behavior.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Once the economy begins to return to normal, as the phases of the pandemic are overcome in the country, it is estimated that the demand for meals outside the home will have decreased by 13%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, variations in demand by Nicaraguan households for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and restrictive measures are lifted in the country.
New health and hygiene protocols in the establishments and the commitment to attract national tourists in an environment where short trips will be preferred, are some of the trends predicted in the new "normality" that will come after the quarantine period.
Given the quarantines decreed by most governments worldwide, it is anticipated that the habits of tourists will change dramatically in the short and medium term, as the crisis of covid-19 will leave consequences among consumers.
The sharp drop expected in the income of the tourism industry in Central America will be partially explained by the decline in hotel activity and tourist marinas.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering various scenarios for the coming months.
Because of the measures restricting mobility in the main markets for Nicaraguan exports, there is uncertainty among businessmen, who fear that the prices of their products will be affected in this situation.
Following the outbreak of covid-19 in the world, the authorities in the U.S. and several countries in Europe and Asia, have ordered the closure of shopping centers, bars, restaurants and cafes, a situation that has caused the drop in consumption globally.
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