According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Nicaraguan businessmen believe that electoral reform is essential to reactivate the country's economic activity, which has been in decline since the crisis erupted in 2018.
According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 5.7% in 2019, a drop that complements the year-on-year variation of -3.8% recorded in 2018.
After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
After having recorded a 4% fall in GDP in 2018, the Central Bank authorities forecast that the Nicaraguan economy will begin to recover in the 2020-2021 period.
Faced with the threat of a global economic slowdown and the possibility of the U.S. entering recession next year, businessmen in the region argue that to mitigate possible adverse effects, it is key to diversify export destinations.
Market analysts assure that the slowdown in U.S. economic activity is already a reality, and that what is still not clear, is the possibility that the economy will go into recession next year.
The outlook for some economies in the region for 2019 is not the best: in Nicaragua GDP is expected to fall between 5% and 7%, while in Costa Rica the growth estimate at the end of the year was reduced from 3.2% to 2.2%.
The estimates of the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented in its "Informe de Coyuntura - Julio 2019", indicate that by 2019 an economic contraction of between 5.4% and 6.8% will be reported in the country.
If the country does not provide an early solution to the socio-political crisis it has been going through since April 2018, it is projected that the economy could decline between 7% and 11% during 2019.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented the "Informe de Coyuntura" (Situation Report), which explains that if the socio-political crisis continues this year there will be a greater fall in the economy compared to the 4% reported in 2018.
Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.
According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.
It would be followed by Honduras, with expected 3.6% GDP growth, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to decline. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.
Preserving macroeconomic and financial stability and restoring private sector confidence are part of the IMF's recommendations to the Nicaraguan government to mitigate the impact of the political and economic crisis.
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Nicaragua, and after evaluating the situation of the economy after more than six months of social and political crisis, forecasts a 4% contraction of the Gross Domestic Product by 2018.
New World Bank projections estimate that because of Nicaragua's political crisis, the country's GDP will fall 4% this year and 1% in 2019.
According to the expectations of the international organization, Nicaragua will be the only economy that will decrease in Central America, because of the political and social crisis in which the country is involved since last April, it is expected that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease 3.8% in 2018 compared to 2017.
Excessive regulation, increased tax charges and geopolitical uncertainty are the main risks to business growth in the region for Central American CEOs.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) conducted the Global CEO Survey in the Central American region, in which a group of business executives from Central American countries and the Dominican Republic shared their opinions about their economic expectations.
Due to the crisis affecting Nicaragua and paralysis of construction in Panama between April and May, the IMF has reduced the expectation of economic growth for the Central American region from 4% to 3.3%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut growth forecasts for the Central American economy, due to the uncertainty caused by the situation in Nicaragua and its effect on the region's economic activity, and the impact of the construction strike in Panama, which has halted works on 260 projects nationwide for the last 30 days.
In the optimistic scenario, which foresees an end to the crisis in Nicaragua by the end of July, economic growth at the end of 2018 would be only 1.7%, with $400 million losses in added value.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development projects that a possible first scenario would be one where "...the government accepts an early exit negotiated and implemented no later than the end of July, thus achieving a framework of understanding focused on the issues of justice and democratization, putting an end to repression, violence and citizen insecurity."