In Guatemala, 54% of businessmen believe that in 2020 the local economy will accelerate, 42% believe that stable growth will be reported and 4% believe that a slowdown could be reported.
According to the Third Business Perception Survey conducted by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif), 67% of respondents expect greater growth of their companies and 56% expect more employment with the arrival of the new government.
In November of this year, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 28% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.34% and 3.54% for November and December 2019, respectively, as well as 3.69% for January 2020.
According to the Central Bank, the constructive activity and consumption spending that Guatemalans make with the money received from abroad will boost the economy by the end of 2019, and this expansive cycle could extend until 2020.
During this year residential and commercial construction, together with public investment, have affected activities such as manufacturing, mining and quarrying, private services and commerce, informed representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
In October of this year the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported an 18% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Entrepreneurs forecast an inflation rate of 3.50% for October, 3.81% for November and 3.94% for December 2019. For December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.32% and 4.28%, in that order, reported the Banco de Guatemala.
After registering a 6% year-on-year rise in August, in September the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 7% variation.
According to the last report of the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.08% is forecast for September, of 4.22% for October and of 4.29% for November 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.43% and 4.46%, in that order, reported the Central Bank of Guatemala.
After registering a 7% year-on-year increase in July, in August the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 6% variation.
According to the last report of the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.51% is forecast for September and of 4.50% for October 2019. As to December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.64% and 4.50%, in that order.
Faced with the threat of a global economic slowdown and the possibility of the U.S. entering recession next year, businessmen in the region argue that to mitigate possible adverse effects, it is key to diversify export destinations.
Market analysts assure that the slowdown in U.S. economic activity is already a reality, and that what is still not clear, is the possibility that the economy will go into recession next year.
After registering a 20% year-on-year drop in June, in July the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 7% variation.
The report of the Bank of Guatemala states that "... The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.72% for July, of 4.70% for August and of 4.72% for September 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.66% and 4.55%, in that order.
After in May 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala increased 14% in year-on-year terms, in June the fall regarding the previous month was of 15%.
The Banco de Guatemala report states that "... The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.45% for June as well as for July and of 4.49% for August 2019. For December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.53% and 4.52%, in that order.
After in March 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala dropped 6% in year-on-year terms, in May the increase was 14% regarding the same month in 2018.
The report of the Banco de Guatemala reviews that "... the inflationary rhythm is forecast at 4.50% for May as well as June and 4.48% for July 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.49% and 4.55%, in that order.
Two weeks before the General Elections in Guatemala, the business sector perceives a favorable environment for business because of the behavior of the country's economic activity.
According to the Business Perception Survey, compiled by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif), 67% of the consulted businessmen foresee stability in employment and 50% thought that there is a stable economic environment for companies. These expectations of the private sector are reported in the final stretch of the country's electoral process.
For the entity, "growth has been accelerating since mid-2018 after three years of weak performance," and a variation of 3.4% of GDP is expected for 2019.
Backed by a positive fiscal boost, the recovery of exports after last year's decline resulting from a deterioration in the terms of trade, and the dynamism of private investment. Growth would peak at 3.7% in 2021, before converging towards the potential rate of 3.5% by 2024, the International Monetary Fund reported after its last visit to the country.
For the Guatemalan private sector, the uncertainty that prevails in the country is because the details of the government programs of the political parties that will participate in the General Elections are not known until now.
Last March 18 officially began the political campaign for the General Elections in the country, but the legal inconveniences faced by some candidates for the presidency cause doubts in the future, since there is no clarity of who will participate in the process and the government plans of the candidates are not known in depth.
After in February 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a year-on-year decrease of 8%, in March the variation was of -6% regarding the same month of 2018.
The report of the Banco de Guatemala reports that during March "... an inflationary rhythm of 4.34% is forecast for March and 4.37% for April and May 2019. For December 2019 and 2020, the Panel expects an inflationary rhythm of 4.35% and 4.41%, in that order.