Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year.
Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
The next U.S. president is not yet known, but in the region it is expected that in an eventual new Trump administration, the focus will be on the recovery of the U.S. economy, while an eventual Biden administration would focus on countering corruption and illegal migration.
Two days after Election Day took place, the United States is experiencing an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, since because the results are closed, neither candidate can yet be declared the winner.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.
In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
Variations indicating a certain improvement in the world economy, the reopening of different markets and the recovery of exports are some of the factors that could influence Guatemala's economic activity to decrease less than expected in 2020.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
Once the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that Guatemalan households will have reduced their demand for car insurance by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to forecast the variations in demand by Guatemalan households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Once the Central American economies begin to return to normal, as the restriction and quarantine measures that have been taken to prevent the spread of the covid-19 are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.
For example, the demand for meals out of home will decrease by about 7% from the levels reported prior to the crisis.
In Central America, it is estimated that the sectors that could expect a severe impact on sales in the coming months are Transport, Entertainment and some sub-sectors of Industry and Trade.
The "Information system for the Covid-19 Impact Analysis on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector, during the coming months.
In February 2020, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 64% growth compared to the same month last year, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.25% for February, 3.36% for March and 3.38% for April 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.20%, in that order.
In January, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 39% increase compared to the same month in 2019, reinforcing the upward trend that has been reported since July 2019.
An inflationary rhythm of 3.72% is forecast for January, 3.71% for February and 3.84% for March 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.19%, in that order.
Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala's new president, is hosting a country with weak institutions, legal uncertainty and a business sector that is asking for a less "hostile" environment for new investments.