After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
Variations indicating a certain improvement in the world economy, the reopening of different markets and the recovery of exports are some of the factors that could influence Guatemala's economic activity to decrease less than expected in 2020.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Once the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that Guatemalan households will have reduced their demand for car insurance by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to forecast the variations in demand by Guatemalan households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Businessmen in Guatemala estimate that patients who visit the country with the aim of buying medical treatment will take between 9 months and a year to regain confidence in making the trip.
The sector is practically paralyzed, since due to the covid-19 outbreak worldwide, several countries have decided to close their borders and air terminals, and airlines are keeping their units on the ground.
In Central America, it is expected that the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the plastic product manufacturing business will be partly explained by the expected drop in sales of bottles and household products.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
If quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is expected that by the end of the year the annualized demand for industrial wood products in Central America will have fallen by 10%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Area of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering different scenarios for the coming months.
If the quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is forecast that by the end of the year the annualized demand for electricity generation, transmission and distribution in Central America will have fallen by 4%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering various scenarios for the coming months.
As the restriction and quarantine measures taken to prevent the spread of covid-19 in the Central American economies are relaxed, cinema ticket sales are forecast to fall by 6%.
Using a demand-income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations that household demand for different goods and services will undergo as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
If the quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is forecast that by the end of the year the annualized demand for repair and maintenance services of machinery and industrial equipment in Central America will have fallen by 5%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering different scenarios for the coming months.
In Central America, it is projected that the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the business of retail sales of gasoline and oil products will be explained mainly by the expected drop in gasoline and diesel sales.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
If the quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is predicted that by the end of the year the annualized demand for car rental services in Central America will have fallen by 30%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering different scenarios for the coming months.
The impact of the covid-19 crisis on the wholesale sector in Central America is predicted to be explained, to a greater extent, by the expected drop in trade in disposable items.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
Once the Central American economies begin to return to normal, as the restriction and quarantine measures that have been taken to prevent the spread of the covid-19 are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.
For example, the demand for meals out of home will decrease by about 7% from the levels reported prior to the crisis.
If quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, annualized demand for carton packaging in the region is forecast to decline by 9% in 2020, and if extended by three months, the decline could be as much as 13%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering several scenarios for the coming months.
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