Taking into account the projected demand, it is expected that in the 2016/17 cycle the region will have sufficient but below average maize supplies and a slightly above average surplus of beans.
From the report "Regional Supply And Market Outlook Central America", by the Famine Early Warnings Systems Network:
This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize grain, dry beans, and rice in the Central American countries of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua for the 2016/17 marketing year. Production and marketing in Mexico, an important source of dry beans and maize, are also discussed. Regional production for the 2016/17 marketing year (through July 2017) is expected to be average (Figure 1). Taking projected demand into account, the region is expected to have belowaverage, but sufficient maize supplies and a slightly above-average bean surplus. The region will maintain deficit in rice (Figure 2).
It is anticipated that international metal prices will rise by 11% due to a reduction in supply and a slight increase is projected in the prices of agricultural commodities.
From a report by the World Bank, "Commodity Markets Outlook":
Fitch foresees returns for Nicaraguan banks, however the result will not be as good for the banking industry in Panama, Guatemala or El Salvador.
From Fitch's report "2017 Outlook: Central American and Dominican Republic Banks"
The 2017 Central American bank rating outlook is stable for 2017, reflecting slight changes in growth and financial performance, according to a new Fitch Ratings report. The evolution of some factors, such as interest rates and private investment, or the emergence of events that could increase reputation risk could alter the banking outlook.Stable Rating Outlook: The ratings of most banks in the region have a stable outlook, reflecting the fact that their credit profile will not undergo significant changes in Fitch's base scenario.Movements in the ratings will be derived mainly from adjustments in ratings of parent banks or sovereign ratings, or of unanticipated events.
According to Fitch Ratings growth in the insurance sector in Central America in 2017 will be driven by the markets of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
From the report "Outlook 2017: Insurance in Central America" by Fitch Ratings:
Rating Outlook Stable:Fitch Ratings´outlook for insurance ratings in Central America is stable. The agency believes that there is a limited probability of rating adjustments in the next 12 to 18 months, which could lead to significant changes in the risk profile or the weighted support in some cases.
The identification of Grupo Waked in a money laundering network could result in significant changes in the representations of brands marketed in the country.
An article on Prensa.com cites Jorge Garcia Icaza, president of the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Agriculture of Panama, who emphasized that restraint should excerised when dealing with the case in order to minimize damage which it is estimated could be caused, especially in relation to jobs in the companies under question.
Fitch forecasts growth of 3.5% in the region in 2016, due to increased competition and currency devaluations in some markets.
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings - San Salvador - (January 21, 2016): The Outlook for the Insurance Sector in Central America and the Dominican Republic is stable, according to a report by Fitch Ratings. This is based on good growth rates of insurance markets in the region, in alignment with growth projections for the economies of these countries . The outlook also considers the strengths that these markets continue to show in terms of capitalization and liquidity. However, a higher frequency of catastrophic natural events, along with inflation and higher currency devaluation in some countries, still pose challenges for the region.
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
A 4% drop in corn production is projected for the crop yield for 15/16 compared to 14/15.
From the monthly report by the International Grains Council:
Revisions for wheat, barley and sorghum lift the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2015/16 by 9m t m/m (month-on-month), to 1,996m, 1% short of last season’s record. The y/y (year-on-year) fall mainly reflects an anticipated drop for maize (corn), seen down by 38m t, with the projection trimmed from before by a further downgrading of the EU crop.
"The ongoing economic recovery in the United States and persistence of relatively low oil prices will provide favorable tailwinds to the region.Because of supply constraints, the region is expected to maintain a moderate pace of growth in coming years."
From the press release by IMF:
Central bank governors, finance ministers, and banking superintendents of Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, and senior IMF officials met in El Salvador on July 23-24 to review the economic outlook for the region and strategies to strengthen policy frameworks and raise inclusive growth. The regional conference saw the participation of the President of El Salvador, Salvador Sánchez-Cerén; Governor of the Bank of México, Agustín Carstens; Director of the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, Laura van Geest; and former Finance Minister of Perú, Luis Carranza.
Reports indicate that for the first time in months, commodities such as cotton, corn and wheat are showing an upward trend, while others such as coffee, sugar and copper have still not recovered.
The downward trend shown by the international price of coffee and other commodities such as sugar, gold and copper, could continue a while longer on the same trajectory, since there are not any factors that would justify a change in the trend, reports Blackbox at, CABI. However, "... They have been on the floor for the last seven years, having reached the bottom during the 2009 crisis, therefore no further declines are expected in general terms, while at the same time there are commodities that have started going into a bull market. "
Slow growth is projected in El Salvador, very good performance in Nicaragua, stability in Panama, more competition in Guatemala and moderate growth in Costa Rica.
From a report by Fitch Ratings entitled "2015 Perspectives: Central American Banks":
Costa Rica:
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for the sector from positive to stable, because the agency does not anticipate substantial improvements in respect to the previous year. The system's profitability will remain low, with less than 1.0% ROAA. The results are limited because of the high dependence on net interest margin (NIM) and additional expenses in provisions for loan losses, due to regulatory changes that established gradual constitutions of general provisions for the best qualified loans. In addition, Fitch does not anticipate improvements in revenue diversification and also foresees a significant revenue exchange rate differential. This last factor has a significant influence on the results of the banks in Costa Rica.
Fitch Ratings expects moderate growth in premiums in Costa Rica, increased interest in personal insurance in Guatemala, and stable performance in Nicaragua and Honduras.
From the report "Outlook 2015: Central American Insurance Sector":
A survey carried out by CID-Gallup on the perceptions of Central Americans regarding the direction of their countries shows pessimism in Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras.
From a statement issued by CID-Gallup:
The Dominican Republic, Panama and Nicaragua are the nations in the region with the best direction for the country.
This is the result of a series of public opinion surveys that CID / Gallup Latin America carries out every year in September in Central America and the Dominican Republic. The survey has a minimum reach of 1200 households and is a representative sample of the national population.
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