After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
In Central America, it is expected that the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the plastic product manufacturing business will be partly explained by the expected drop in sales of bottles and household products.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
If quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is expected that by the end of the year the annualized demand for industrial wood products in Central America will have fallen by 10%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Area of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering different scenarios for the coming months.
If the quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is forecast that by the end of the year the annualized demand for electricity generation, transmission and distribution in Central America will have fallen by 4%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering various scenarios for the coming months.
As the restriction and quarantine measures taken to prevent the spread of covid-19 in the Central American economies are relaxed, cinema ticket sales are forecast to fall by 6%.
Using a demand-income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations that household demand for different goods and services will undergo as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
If the quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is forecast that by the end of the year the annualized demand for repair and maintenance services of machinery and industrial equipment in Central America will have fallen by 5%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering different scenarios for the coming months.
In Central America, it is projected that the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the business of retail sales of gasoline and oil products will be explained mainly by the expected drop in gasoline and diesel sales.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
If the quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, it is predicted that by the end of the year the annualized demand for car rental services in Central America will have fallen by 30%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering different scenarios for the coming months.
The impact of the covid-19 crisis on the wholesale sector in Central America is predicted to be explained, to a greater extent, by the expected drop in trade in disposable items.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
Once the Central American economies begin to return to normal, as the restriction and quarantine measures that have been taken to prevent the spread of the covid-19 are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.
For example, the demand for meals out of home will decrease by about 7% from the levels reported prior to the crisis.
If quarantine and mobility restriction measures are extended by two months, annualized demand for carton packaging in the region is forecast to decline by 9% in 2020, and if extended by three months, the decline could be as much as 13%.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering several scenarios for the coming months.
The impact of the covid19 crisis on the construction sector in Central America is expected to be explained, to a greater extent, by the expected fall in the business of prefabricated steel structures.
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
Except for Nicaragua, which projects a decline in revenues, Fitch Ratings estimates that by year-end the region's insurance markets will have grown from 3% to 8%.
According to the report Perspectives of Insurance Industry in Central America, prepared by the rating agency Fitch Ratings, El Salvador will be the market that in 2019 will register more dynamism in the region, reporting an 8% increase over revenues reported in 2018.
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