Dairy producers in Nicaragua are facing a scenario of falling prices, a situation resulting from the oversupply of this type of food reported in the local market.
Executives of the National Livestock Commission of Nicaragua (Conagan) report that with the onset of winter, the country's trading partners are reducing dairy purchases to protect local production.
Because the level of rainfall forecast for the winter is expected to favor livestock activity, entrepreneurs in the sector expect local production of meat and milk to grow during 2021.
Experts predict that this year's winter conditions will lead to an increase in green pasture for cattle. This factor will boost milk and meat production.
In terms of volume traded, dairy sales to Guatemala have gained ground and are currently the second most important market for Nicaraguan companies.
During the first quarter of 2021 Nicaragua exported 17.14 million kilograms of dairy products, of the total volume 12 million kilograms were purchased by Salvadoran companies, 2.61 million kilograms were placed in the Guatemalan market and 2.04 million kilograms were traded in the United States.
From January to June 2020, trade in milk and dairy products between Central American countries totaled $183 million, 19% more than what was recorded in the same period of 2019.
Figures from the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with the graph"]
The increase in the international prices of corn and soybeans, inputs used to produce animal feed, threatens to put upward pressure on the production costs of meat, eggs and dairy products.
In recent months, the international price of a bushel (27 kilos) of soybeans increased by 28%, from $10.6 to $13.62, between November 1, 2020 and January 28, 2021.
In Nicaragua, from January to July of this year, exports of livestock products totaled $449 million, 16% more than reported for the same period in 2019, mainly due to increased sales of beef.
Figures from the Export Processing Center (Cetrex) indicate that between January and July 2019 and the same period this year, foreign sales of livestock products increased from $388 million to $449 million.
In the last five years, liquid milk sales in Central America increased 16%, from $3,935 million in 2014 to about $4,566 million in 2019, growth that was boosted by the Costa Rican and Honduran markets.
Figures from the "Liquid Milk Market Snapshot" prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, detail that in the last five years the volume consumed at regional level of liquid milk registered an increase, since between 2014 and 2019 it is estimated that demand in Central America rose from 3,907 to 4,202 million liters.
After a quarantine was decreed in El Salvador because of the spread of covid-19, there is uncertainty among Nicaraguan producers because the borders may be closed for their products.
Since March 11, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has decreed a nationwide quarantine, arguing that there is a risk of spreading the coronavirus to neighboring countries, where there are already several confirmed cases.
Arguing that quality and health standards are not being met, Salvadoran farmers are asking for greater controls on milk products entering from Nicaragua and Honduras.
CentralAmericaData reports that from January to September 2019 El Salvador was the main buyer of milk and dairy products from the other Central American countries, importing $106 million, of which $78 million was bought from Nicaragua, $14 million from Costa Rica and another $13 million from Honduras.
From January to September 2019, trade in milk and dairy products among the countries of the region reached $245 million, 2% more than in the same period in 2018.
Figures from the Trade Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graphics"]
Although the economic and political crisis has hit several productive activities in Nicaragua, the dairy sector plans to close 2019 with a 5% increase in sales abroad.
In addition to the crisis that has affected Nicaragua since April 2018, businessmen in the sector identify as obstacles to the growth of their income the commercial obstacles that persist in Honduras and El Salvador, the entry into force of the tax reform and the constant increases in electricity tariffs.
Between 2017 and 2018, exports of milk and milk products fell 8%, and producers expect the downward trend to continue this year, because of the negative impact of the tax reform.
Figures from the Central Bank of Nicaragua show that between 2017 and 2018 exports of milk and milk products fell from $184 million to $167 million, and the volume traded fell from 85 million kilograms to 63 million kilograms.
The barriers imposed by the Honduran and Panamanian markets, coupled with the negative effect of the recent tax reform, force Nicaraguan cattle ranchers to predict a bleak future.
Figures from the National Livestock Commission of Nicaragua (Conagan) specify that between 2017 and 2018 meat exports from Nicaragua fell by 7.9%, from $587 million to $541 million, and in the case of dairy, the fall was 8.4%, going down from $177 million to $162 million.
The regional guild of the sector reported that the volume of milk produced by the countries of the region increased from 3.5 to 3.7 million metric tons between 2015 and 2016.
According to figures from the Central American guilds, the increase in global production registered in 2016, when the most updated statistics exist as a region, is explained by increases reported in all countries, mainly from Costa Rica with 18%, followed by El Salvador with 14%, Guatemala with 13%, Panama with 6%, and Honduras with 4%.