The deterioration of public finances and the inability of the Alvarado administration to end the blockades set up by trade unionists are again drawing the attention of rating agencies and the international market, who foresee a complicated economic future for Costa Rica.
According to the risk rating agency Moody's, the demonstrations by public sector unions are increasingly complicating the path towards a much-needed reform of public finances, which would take its first steps with the approval of the bill that is being discussed in the Legislative Assembly.
Citing a long history of fiscal and monetary policy characterized by prudent management, the rating agency Moody's maintained the country's credit risk rating in Ba1.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
June 2018.Moody's Investors Service maintains the credit risk rating for Guatemala at Ba1 with a stable outlook.
The IMF believes that the financial stability framework is not well prepared to handle a potential systemic financial crisis without seriously compromising fiscal resources.
In a review carried out late last year, the International Monetary Fund identified serious vulnerabilities in the pension sector, secondary markets and crisis management mechanisms and stated that they need to be taken care of immediately.
If the reforms to the Banking Law that are being discussed in the Congress are approved, cooperatives will have to start reporting information in their loan portfolios.
Legal initiative number 5157which is pending final approval, proposes, among other changes, including in the Credit Registration Information System (SIRC by its initials in Spanish) information from financial institutions that are not yet sending reports.
The key factor driving the rating upgrade is the significant reduction of the government liquidity risks, as political agreements have led to Congress´approval of long-term government financing and pension reform.
Risk rating firm Moody's announced on Friday, February 23 that El Salvador's debt was rated B3, which represents an improvement from the previous rating of Caa1.However, the country is still considered an issuer with risk of not fulfilling its obligations.
Due to an increase in commercial credit and personal loans, the gross portfolio totaled $5.480 billion up to November 2017, 15% more than in the same month in 2016.
According to a Report on the Performance of the National Financial System, published by the Central Bank of Nicaragua in November 2017, the financial system increased its financial assets by 16%, while the credit portfolio grew by 15%, both in year-on-year terms.
As of September, credit granted by the financial system registered a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by commercial credit and personal loans, which grew by 14% and 15%, respectively.
From a financial report by the Central Bank:
The financial system remains stable as of September. The loan portfolio grew by 15.6 percent year-on-year.The risk indicators continue below the average for the region and the liquidity of the system was above 31 percent. In relation to deposits,an interannual growth of 8.7 percentwasobserved (10.9% in September 2016).Finally, the indicators on profitability, solvency and capital have been found to be stable throughout the year.
Standard & Poor's has lowered its debt rating to SD after the Legislative Assembly approved a pension reform which includes a restructuring of government debt.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor´s:
El Salvador's Congress approved amendments to the terms of its Certificates for Pension Investments (CIPs).
Based on our criteria, we consider this change in the original terms to be a default.
...and I will tell you who you are. In their quest to reduce exposure to risk, banking correspondents have started to restrict the services they provide to gambling companies, remittance companies, and brokerage firms that are not related to banking groups in the region.
In order to reduce risk exposure, some international banks with correspondents in Panama and other countries in the region are failing to open accounts for or provide services for companies whose income comes from activities such as remittances and gambling.The banks' argument is that they are more likely to be used for money laundering. Even non-banking brokerage firms claim to have difficulty offering their customers products and services,"... since banks wont open accounts in which customers can deposit their funds and receive a return on their investment."
Trade and construction activities recorded the lowest demand for bank credit, which grew 6% in the first five months of the year compared to the same period in 2016.
Following trade and construction, electricity and water are the worst performers according to figures from the Guatemalan Superintendency of Banks.
By requiring banks to have additional capital requirements the Sugef aims to discourage consumer loans, mortgages and vehicles loans with long repayment terms.
Arguing that terms of over 30 years for housing loans and more than 5 in consumer loans encourages overindebtedness of Costa Ricans, the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (SUGEF) has presented a proposal toreform the ruleson capital adequacy of financial entities, in order to require entities that carry out these credit operations to have additional capital.
In line with recent warnings issued by other credit rating agencies regarding the country's bleak fiscal outlook, Fitch has reduced the debt rating from B + to B, and changed the outlook to negative.
From a press release issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-01 February 2017: Fitch Ratings has downgraded El Salvador's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B' from 'B+'.
Two months after reducing the rating from B + to B, Standard & Poor's has now reduced the note to B-, with a negative outlook.
From a press release by Standard & Poor's:
OVERVIEW
El Salvador's liquidity has deteriorated significantly because of protracted negotiations between the government and opposition parties on a comprehensive set of fiscal reforms that has weakened debt management.
The Superintendency of Banks is working on an update of the regulation on credit risk management and a new regulation of corporate governance for insurers.
Jose Alejandro Arevalo, head of the Superintendency of Banks (SIB), told Dca.gob.gt that"... in the case of regulation 93-2005 they want to ensure that the valuation of assets which is presented every 4 months by banks reflects economic reality and the quality of the goods."
Moody's has downgraded the Brazilian construction company and does not foresee its financial profile significantly recovering over the next 12 months.
The construction company is currently running three major projects in Panama: the urban renovation of Colon, with a value of $537 million, the construction of Metro Line 2, for $1.8 billion, and the expansion of Tocumen International Airport.