Fitch Ratings agreed to change the perspective of the region's banks from stable to negative, arguing that the current health crisis will affect financial institutions in all countries.
Considering the measures that countries have adopted in the last 15 days in economic matters, following the spread of covid-19, Fitch expects that there will be a decrease in the issuance of loans.
According to Fitch Ratings, banks in Nicaragua will continue to be pressured by the remaining effects of an economic contraction for the second consecutive year, a situation derived from the political crisis affecting the country.
Fitch Ratings decided to keep the country's risk rating at B, but changed the outlook from negative to stable, arguing that there are some signs of stabilization of Central Bank reserves and commercial bank deposits.
The revision of the outlook reflects the stabilization of central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits, a significant fiscal adjustment and social security reform that have reduced domestic financing needs and a pronounced external rebalancing that has facilitated the external financing requirement, the rating agency reported.
As of September, credit granted by the financial system registered a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by commercial credit and personal loans, which grew by 14% and 15%, respectively.
From a financial report by the Central Bank:
The financial system remains stable as of September. The loan portfolio grew by 15.6 percent year-on-year.The risk indicators continue below the average for the region and the liquidity of the system was above 31 percent. In relation to deposits,an interannual growth of 8.7 percentwasobserved (10.9% in September 2016).Finally, the indicators on profitability, solvency and capital have been found to be stable throughout the year.
Moody's warns of the risks faced by banks in Central America in the context of a rising trend in interest rates and dollarization of their loan portfolios.
From a report by Moody's:
Mexico, September 14, 2016 -- Banks in Central America face rising asset risks as interest rates look set to rise in the region, pushing up debt service costs for borrowers, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
It is difficult to understand - especially because it has been made public - how a major state bank has described the International Bank of Costa Rica as "high risk" while another main state bank has stated the opposite.
EDITORIAL
The banks involved are Banco de Costa Rica (BCR) and Banco Nacional (BN). Between them they are the owners of Banco Internacional de Costa Rica (BICSA), with 51% of the shares the first and 49% of the second.
For the last four years the loan portfolio of the Salvadoran financial system has been growing at an average rate of 3.5%, below the 11% growth average in the rest of the region.
A report produced by the rating agency Moody's notes that growth in El Salvador's financial sector has been stagnant since 2010, as the total loan portfolio has not achieved growth rates above 3.5% per year.