The rating agency affirmed the Central American Country’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default rating at "B-" and reviewed the rating outlook to stable from negative.
Nicaragua's ratings are constrained by the lowest average World Bank Governance Indicators score in the Americas rated by Fitch, low per capita income, political stability risks, and international sanctions that limit future external financing, the rating agency's analysis highlights.
Fitch Ratings agreed to change the perspective of the region's banks from stable to negative, arguing that the current health crisis will affect financial institutions in all countries.
Considering the measures that countries have adopted in the last 15 days in economic matters, following the spread of covid-19, Fitch expects that there will be a decrease in the issuance of loans.
Arguing that economic strength has weakened as a result of social tensions and is likely to leave a lasting negative impact, the rating agency reduced the country's credit risk rating from B2 to B3.
"The risk of reduced access to official external credit is creating financing challenges and restricting the authorities' ability to support economic activity," the agency's report explains.
According to Fitch Ratings, banks in Nicaragua will continue to be pressured by the remaining effects of an economic contraction for the second consecutive year, a situation derived from the political crisis affecting the country.
Fitch Ratings decided to keep the country's risk rating at B, but changed the outlook from negative to stable, arguing that there are some signs of stabilization of Central Bank reserves and commercial bank deposits.
The revision of the outlook reflects the stabilization of central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits, a significant fiscal adjustment and social security reform that have reduced domestic financing needs and a pronounced external rebalancing that has facilitated the external financing requirement, the rating agency reported.
Standard & Poor's warned that if in the coming months the political environment worsens or access to local and external financing deteriorates again, the debt note could suffer further deterioration.
Up to June 2019, the gross portfolio of the financial system totaled $4.047 million, 20% less than in the same month in 2018, partly explained by the performance of commercial and personal credit.
In terms of composition, the current loan portfolio represented 89.2% of the gross portfolio (89.7% in May 2019), while the portfolio at risk represented 10.8% (10.3% in May 2019).
After Nicaragua Financia Capital S.A. declared that no funds were available to meet its obligations, the entity announced that it will propose to investors to renegotiate the terms.
On February 8, the Superintendence of Banks and Other Financial Institutions (Siboif) decided to revoke the authorization granted to Financia Capital, S.A. to make a public offering of fixed income securities.
Because Financia Capital S.A. does not have the funds available to meet its obligations, it was revoked the authorization to make a public offering of fixed income securities.
The Superintendence of Banks and Other Financial Institutions (Siboif) informed that its authorization was revoked because "... the representatives of the issuer Financia Capital S.A.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Due to an increase in commercial credit and personal loans, the gross portfolio totaled $5.480 billion up to November 2017, 15% more than in the same month in 2016.
According to a Report on the Performance of the National Financial System, published by the Central Bank of Nicaragua in November 2017, the financial system increased its financial assets by 16%, while the credit portfolio grew by 15%, both in year-on-year terms.
As of September, credit granted by the financial system registered a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by commercial credit and personal loans, which grew by 14% and 15%, respectively.
From a financial report by the Central Bank:
The financial system remains stable as of September. The loan portfolio grew by 15.6 percent year-on-year.The risk indicators continue below the average for the region and the liquidity of the system was above 31 percent. In relation to deposits,an interannual growth of 8.7 percentwasobserved (10.9% in September 2016).Finally, the indicators on profitability, solvency and capital have been found to be stable throughout the year.
...and I will tell you who you are. In their quest to reduce exposure to risk, banking correspondents have started to restrict the services they provide to gambling companies, remittance companies, and brokerage firms that are not related to banking groups in the region.
In order to reduce risk exposure, some international banks with correspondents in Panama and other countries in the region are failing to open accounts for or provide services for companies whose income comes from activities such as remittances and gambling.The banks' argument is that they are more likely to be used for money laundering. Even non-banking brokerage firms claim to have difficulty offering their customers products and services,"... since banks wont open accounts in which customers can deposit their funds and receive a return on their investment."
Moody's warns of the risks faced by banks in Central America in the context of a rising trend in interest rates and dollarization of their loan portfolios.
From a report by Moody's:
Mexico, September 14, 2016 -- Banks in Central America face rising asset risks as interest rates look set to rise in the region, pushing up debt service costs for borrowers, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
The countries facing the greatest risk of fiscal unsustainability within three years are El Salvador and Honduras, followed by Costa Rica and with less risk, Nicaragua and Panama.
From the "EconomicOutlook"section of the V Report on the State of the Region 2016: