Moody's maintained the Salvadoran government's long-term and senior unsecured issuer rating at B3, but decided to change the outlook to negative, a downgrade that reflects persistent concerns about public debt sustainability.
The negative outlook reflects the credit risks associated with the implementation risks of its upcoming fiscal adjustment efforts, high liquidity risks driven by large gross financing needs in 2021-23, and persistent concerns about debt sustainability despite an expected fiscal adjustment, the rating agency explained.
Fitch Ratings agreed to change the perspective of the region's banks from stable to negative, arguing that the current health crisis will affect financial institutions in all countries.
Considering the measures that countries have adopted in the last 15 days in economic matters, following the spread of covid-19, Fitch expects that there will be a decrease in the issuance of loans.
Without clarifying which companies or individuals could apply the measure, the Bukele administration announced a three-month exemption from payment of mortgage loans, services such as water, electricity, Internet, cable and telephone.
These measures may be applied by all those "... natural and legal persons, which are directly affected by the covid-19 pandemic and government institutions must ensure that in their implementation there is no abuse or exploitation". As a result of this announcement, uncertainty has arisen as it is not clear how those "directly affected" will be determined.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Standard & Poors raised the rating from CCC+/C to B-/B, with a stable outlook, arguing that in the next three years the fiscal deficit will be moderate, and its debt levels will remain unchanged.
From the Standard & Poors report:
RATINGS
Foreign Currency: B-/Stable/B
Local Currency: B-/Stable/B
For further details see Ratings List.
The key factor driving the rating upgrade is the significant reduction of the government liquidity risks, as political agreements have led to Congress´approval of long-term government financing and pension reform.
Risk rating firm Moody's announced on Friday, February 23 that El Salvador's debt was rated B3, which represents an improvement from the previous rating of Caa1.However, the country is still considered an issuer with risk of not fulfilling its obligations.
Standard & Poor's has lowered its debt rating to SD after the Legislative Assembly approved a pension reform which includes a restructuring of government debt.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor´s:
El Salvador's Congress approved amendments to the terms of its Certificates for Pension Investments (CIPs).
Based on our criteria, we consider this change in the original terms to be a default.
...and I will tell you who you are. In their quest to reduce exposure to risk, banking correspondents have started to restrict the services they provide to gambling companies, remittance companies, and brokerage firms that are not related to banking groups in the region.
In order to reduce risk exposure, some international banks with correspondents in Panama and other countries in the region are failing to open accounts for or provide services for companies whose income comes from activities such as remittances and gambling.The banks' argument is that they are more likely to be used for money laundering. Even non-banking brokerage firms claim to have difficulty offering their customers products and services,"... since banks wont open accounts in which customers can deposit their funds and receive a return on their investment."
In line with recent warnings issued by other credit rating agencies regarding the country's bleak fiscal outlook, Fitch has reduced the debt rating from B + to B, and changed the outlook to negative.
From a press release issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-01 February 2017: Fitch Ratings has downgraded El Salvador's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B' from 'B+'.
Two months after reducing the rating from B + to B, Standard & Poor's has now reduced the note to B-, with a negative outlook.
From a press release by Standard & Poor's:
OVERVIEW
El Salvador's liquidity has deteriorated significantly because of protracted negotiations between the government and opposition parties on a comprehensive set of fiscal reforms that has weakened debt management.
Moody's warns of the risks faced by banks in Central America in the context of a rising trend in interest rates and dollarization of their loan portfolios.
From a report by Moody's:
Mexico, September 14, 2016 -- Banks in Central America face rising asset risks as interest rates look set to rise in the region, pushing up debt service costs for borrowers, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
The countries facing the greatest risk of fiscal unsustainability within three years are El Salvador and Honduras, followed by Costa Rica and with less risk, Nicaragua and Panama.
From the "EconomicOutlook"section of the V Report on the State of the Region 2016:
It is difficult to understand - especially because it has been made public - how a major state bank has described the International Bank of Costa Rica as "high risk" while another main state bank has stated the opposite.
EDITORIAL
The banks involved are Banco de Costa Rica (BCR) and Banco Nacional (BN). Between them they are the owners of Banco Internacional de Costa Rica (BICSA), with 51% of the shares the first and 49% of the second.
A call is being made to professionals in the area of auditing and risk management to attend the first Latin American Seminar on Governance, Risk and Control on April 14 and 15 in Panama.
The Latin American Foundation of Internal Auditors (FLAI) and the Institute of Internal Auditors of Panama (IAI Panama), in partnership with the Institute of Global Internal Auditors (IIA Global) is convening the first Latin American Seminar on Governance, Risk and Control - SELAT GRC 2016 , on April 14 and 15 to be held in the Hotel Riu Panama Plaza, reported Panamaamerica.com.pa.
Standard & Poor's has warned of the risk of default in the next two years and reduced the rating for the sovereign debt of Venezuela, the principal debtor of the Colon Free Zone.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor's:
OVERVIEW
The Venezuelan government's failure to take timely corrective actions to address growing economic distortions has contributed to economic deterioration and shortages of foreign exchange.