Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year.
After the political crisis the country went through in 2018 and the health crisis it faced in 2020, businessmen maintain hopes that tourism activities will recover in 2021 and in the following years return to the path of growth.
The Nicaraguan tourism sector has been rained on over the past three years. In April 2018, companies engaged in these activities began to experience a crisis, as a political and social crisis occurred in the country, which ended up affecting the productive activity.
Although in Costa Rica during December 2020 most businesses increased their sales by about 10%, the expectations of the sector's entrepreneurs for the first quarter of 2021 are still uncertain.
The year 2020 was marked by an economic crisis, which was generated by the outbreak of covid-19 at a global level. In this context, the Costa Rican commercial sector managed to oxygenate its finances with the end of the year celebrations.
In the context of the health crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19, businessmen of the sector foresee that at the end of 2020 the tourism industry will add revenues of about $176 million, an amount that would be 66% less than that reported in 2019.
The estimates of the National Chamber of Tourism of Nicaragua (Canatur), are more pessimistic than the projections of the Nicaraguan Institute of Tourism (Intur), since according to the business association the income will amount to $176 million and according to the government institution it will add $216 million at the end of the year.
Betting on sales through digital channels, offering dishes at more accessible prices and carrying out promotions are some of the strategies that some casual dining restaurants that compete in the Costa Rican market seek to apply.
The spread of covid-19 severely affected the restaurant sector, especially businesses that did not sell through digital channels or did not have options to deliver their products to their homes.
Due to Costa Rica's estimated average hotel occupancy rate of 52% by 2020, well below the 95% recorded at the end of 2019, businessmen in the sector expect that in this context of crisis there will be no peak seasons next year.
The tourism sector is one of the hardest hit by the economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19, because mobility restrictions, the closure of air terminals and the fear of tourists to be infected, have influenced the drastic fall in tourism activity.
Promoting a risk management culture, defining possible scenarios by turning uncertainty into a variable and preparing to safeguard the company's operational continuity are some of the most important strategies for facing the coming year.
The pandemic that generated the spread of covid-19, caused changes in all business sectors and also generated an environment of uncertainty regarding the future of the economy.
Since the beginning of the political crisis in 2018, the activity began to decline, the trend continued in 2019 and by 2020 the expectation is that the fall in investments in the sector will be more acute, mainly private ones.
Official data indicates that between 2017 and 2018 investment in private construction projects decreased by 17%, from $1,106 million to $914 million.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.
In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.
In Guatemala, since October 1st, shopping malls have reactivated their operations, and businessmen in the sector estimate that sales will be 40% of the levels reported before covid-19.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
Although the sector keeps its operations alive thanks to the packaging they produce for the food and cleaning industry, there is uncertainty among entrepreneurs as the demand for bags, brushes, tableware, furniture and other products has contracted.
As a result of the home quarantines that were decreed in the countries of the region in March 2020 due to covid-19, the outlook for the plastics industry fluctuates between optimism and uncertainty in market behavior.
By the fourth quarter of 2020, 21% of companies in the country expect to reduce their payrolls, a proportion that is higher than the 14% registered in the third quarter of this year, a rise that is explained by the economic crisis generated by the covid-19.
Panamanian employers report negative hiring expectations for the October-December period. Three percent of the employers expect to increase their workforce, however, 21 percent expect to reduce it, while 68 percent remain unchanged, resulting in a Net Employment Trend of -18%.
Between February and August of this year, the proportion of consumers in Costa Rica who expressed pessimism regarding the country's economic future increased from 33% to 47%, a rise that can be explained by the crisis resulting from the outbreak of covid-19.
According to the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted during August 2020 by the School of Statistics of the University of Costa Rica, people in the country expect increases in the cost of their loans in the next 12 months.
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