Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year.
Central America must be the driving force behind a globally accepted document that will be vital for the recovery of the global economy and tourism in particular.
The generation of a physical or digital document of global acceptance (like national passports) that certifies that the bearer has been vaccinated against Covid-19 will facilitate the movement of people that has been severely restricted as part of the measures adopted by governments, both locally and internationally, to contain the pandemic.
The government and businessmen agree that 2021 will be a good year for construction, as the Bank of Guatemala projects that the sector will grow by 7.5%, while the builders' guild estimates that activity will increase by 3%.
According to official forecasts made by the central bank, it is estimated that during 2020, economic activity in the construction sector fell by 7.4% due to the crisis caused by the outbreak of covid-19.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.
In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.
In Guatemala, since October 1st, shopping malls have reactivated their operations, and businessmen in the sector estimate that sales will be 40% of the levels reported before covid-19.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
Variations indicating a certain improvement in the world economy, the reopening of different markets and the recovery of exports are some of the factors that could influence Guatemala's economic activity to decrease less than expected in 2020.
After the industrial activity registered in May one of the lowest levels of the last years, it is expected that the sector will close 2020 in negative variations, but more moderate than those reported in the first half of the year.
The Index of Economic Activity of the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, which is calculated by Central American Business Intelligence (Cabi), states that during May and in the context of the economic crisis resulting from the outbreak of covid-19, fell by about 10% when compared to the same period in 2019.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Once the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that Guatemalan households will have reduced their demand for car insurance by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to forecast the variations in demand by Guatemalan households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Businessmen in Guatemala estimate that patients who visit the country with the aim of buying medical treatment will take between 9 months and a year to regain confidence in making the trip.
The sector is practically paralyzed, since due to the covid-19 outbreak worldwide, several countries have decided to close their borders and air terminals, and airlines are keeping their units on the ground.
Measuring sales performance, observing trends and anticipating the impact that the crisis will have on the market in which each company operates has never been more important, and in this context, accurate data management and analysis becomes essential.
"... Twelve years ago, in the midst of the economic downturn in 2008, British Airways (BA) was cutting costs across the organization.
When Central American economies begin to relax the restrictions that have been adopted to prevent the spread of covid-19, sales of plasma screens are predicted to be among the largest drop in sales.
Using a demand-income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations that household demand for different goods and services will undergo as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
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