In Guatemala the union of producers has stated that a reduction in international prices is affecting the sector, which is already facing difficulties in covering production costs.
The National Coffee Association attributes the problem to international consortia, which may be exerting further downward pressure on grain prices.They warn that this situation will have a strong impact on the national economy, because with current prices, producers are not even able to cover their costs.
Due to the climatic conditions predicted for the months of July and August, an increase is expected in the presence of the disease in coffee plantations in Costa Rica.
During July there is a typical decrease in rainfall known as "la canícula", a period in which Rust progresses slowly and the emergence of new lesions is less.However, at the same time there is a greater presence of spores in the lesiones favored by the warmer temperature and by weaker and less frequent rains.This situation will promote a largeincrease in the disease in the majority of the Costa Rican coffee plantations when more abundant rains return starting in August, reported the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafé).
After a slight increase in the first month of 2018, in February international prices fell by 1%, due to the negative behavior of three groups of the Arabica variety.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
After a slight rise in January following a three-month decline, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell by 1.2% in February 2018 to 114.19 US cents/lb.
In the first nine months of 2017, countries in the region exported $2.795 million worth of coffee, 29% more than was sold during the same period in 2016.
Figures from the information system on the the Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
After reaching its lowest level in 22 months in December 2017, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 1.4%.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
Coffee market recovers slightly from December slump
After reaching its lowest level in 22 months in December 2017, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 1.4% to 115.60 US cents/lb in January 2018.
In September international prices continued the downward trend that began in late August, and for the third consecutive year the 2016/17 coffee cycle closed with a deficit.
From a report by the International Coffee Organization:
The ICO composite indicator continued its downward trend that started at the end of August, averaging 124.46 US cents/lb.
Climatic conditions in the first half of the year have raised the likelihood of an increase in the presence of the pest in some of the grain producing regions.
The technical department of the National Coffee Association (Anacafé) has stated that the average incidence is 11%, but in some areas in the regions 1, 2, 4 and 7, the incidence is above 20%.
A study by the Smithsonian Institute predicts that by 2050 the areas suitable for coffee cultivation in Latin America will have been reduced by 73-88%.
From a report by the Smithsonian Institute:
Areas in Latin America suitable for growing coffee face predicted declines of 73-88 percent by 2050. However, diversity in bee species may save the day, even if many species in cool highland regions are lost as the climate warms.
In the last five years, the average price of coffee exported by countries in the region fell by 33%, going from $226 to $151.
Figures from the information system on thethe Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit atCentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
Production in April amounted to 834 thousand bags of 60 kilos, 20% less than production in the same month in the previous harvest, when 1.04 million bags were recorded.
Larepublica.co reports that"...The reason for the fall in production last month, according to the National Coffee Growers Federation (FNC), could be a delay in the blooms responsible for the harvest in the first half of the year.On the other hand, production for the current year was 4.4 million bags an increase of 4.8% compared to production in the same period in 2016."
In March the growth in inventories in most varieties reinforces the fact that the market lacks any clear signals of a reverse in the current downward trend.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO):
In March, the ICO composite indicator price fell slightly. While Robustas remained broadly stable, Arabica prices were under pressure.
A reduction has been projected of between 10% and 15% in the 2017/18 harvest due to the effects of drought and frost in different production areas in the country.
The projections are the result of an assessment carried out by the technical department of the National Coffee Association (Anacafe) in different parts of the country.For the 2017/18 harvest a production of 3.35 million hundredweight is expected.
The largest producer of washed Arabica coffee increased its harvest in the last twelve months by 3%, reaching 14 million bags each weighing 60 kilos.
From a statement by the National Federation of Coffee Growers in Colombia:
The General Manager of the FNC celebrated production levels and coffee prices and invited coffee growers to take advantage of them to plan for the future.He also recalled that current price levels are offsetting losses in the first half of the year. In the last twelve months Colombia coffee exports amounted to 12.39 million bags.
Because of incidences of rust, coffee production in the 2015-2016 harvest was only 3.9 million hundredweight, equivalent to $700 million in foreign exchange.
The presence of rust in more than half of coffee plantations, lack of funding to renovate plantations and low international grain prices resulted in a reduction in production and in export values, for the second consecutive cycle.