While producers in El Salvador predict that the local crop could be extinct in the next two years because of falling international prices, other countries in the region place grain at more favorable prices.
Each country's realities are different, as there are several differences that are reflected in the amounts exported and in the average prices at which the grain sells abroad.
During the first six months of the year, coffee exports from Central American countries totaled $1,948 million, 9% less than what was reported in the same period in 2017.
Figures from the information system on the coffee market in Central America complied by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graphic"]
Coffee growers in Guatemala estimate that production in the agricultural cycle that is about to end will totol 4.3 million hundredweight, above the 4.2 million hundredweight reported in the 2016-2017 harvest.
Forecasts by the National Coffee Association (Anacafé) indicate that for the upcoming 2018-2019 harvest, production could be located at 4.5 million gold hundredweight (46 kilos sacks), which would mean a continuation of the recovery phase.
Prices for all coffee groups fell in July 2018, though the largest month-on month decrease occurred for Brazilian Naturals, which declined by 4% to 110.54 US cents/lb.
From the monthly report by the ICO:
In July 2018, the ICO composite indicator price decreased by 2.9% to an average of 107.20 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly average for July since 2007, when the monthly composite indicator reached 106.20 US cents/lb.
Due to the climatic conditions predicted for the months of July and August, an increase is expected in the presence of the disease in coffee plantations in Costa Rica.
During July there is a typical decrease in rainfall known as "la canícula", a period in which Rust progresses slowly and the emergence of new lesions is less.However, at the same time there is a greater presence of spores in the lesiones favored by the warmer temperature and by weaker and less frequent rains.This situation will promote a largeincrease in the disease in the majority of the Costa Rican coffee plantations when more abundant rains return starting in August, reported the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafé).
Last year coffee sales in Central American countries totaled $3.035 million and grew by 27% compared to 2016, in contrast to the fall recorded between 2015 and 2016.
Figures from the information system on the Coffee Marketin Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData : [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graph"]
In March, international coffee prices registered a 1% reduction, mainly due to the low prices of the Colombian Milds coffee variety.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
Since August 2017, the ICO composite indicator price has declined in each month except January 2018. The composite indicator decreased by 1.1% in March 2018 to an average of 112.99 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly price since February 2016.
After a slight increase in the first month of 2018, in February international prices fell by 1%, due to the negative behavior of three groups of the Arabica variety.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
After a slight rise in January following a three-month decline, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell by 1.2% in February 2018 to 114.19 US cents/lb.
In the first nine months of 2017, countries in the region exported $2.795 million worth of coffee, 29% more than was sold during the same period in 2016.
Figures from the information system on the the Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
The Guatemalan union of the sector announced that the reactivation plan they are preparing is based on the renovation of coffee plantations within a period of five years.
The National Coffee Association (Anacafé), is working in conjunction with the ministries of Public Finance, Agriculture, Livestock and Food and the Inter-American Development Bank, on a plan for economic reactivation of the sector, which could be ready in the coming weeks.
Global coffee output for 2017/18 is preliminary estimated at 158.78 million bags, 0.7% higher than last year.
Total production of Arabica is estimated to decrease by 1.1% to 97.32 million bags compared to 98.42 million bags last year, as lower production of Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals are only partially offset by increases in Other Milds.
In the last five years, the average price of coffee exported by countries in the region fell by 33%, going from $226 to $151.
Figures from the information system on thethe Coffee market in Central America, compiled by the Business Intelligence Unit atCentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graph"]
In June Arabica prices fell and then recovered, while robusta prices closed the month at higher levels.
From the Coffee Market Report June 2017, by the International Coffee Organization:
The coffee market was volatile with Arabica prices tumbling and subsequently recovering to previous levels while Robusta closed higher. Exports in June remained strong at 10.9 million bags, 8.8% higher than last year, leading to large inventories in importing countries. Hence, the coffee market is well supplied going into the critical month of July when frosts remain possible in Brazil.
The largest producer of washed Arabica coffee increased its harvest in the last twelve months by 3%, reaching 14 million bags each weighing 60 kilos.
From a statement by the National Federation of Coffee Growers in Colombia:
The General Manager of the FNC celebrated production levels and coffee prices and invited coffee growers to take advantage of them to plan for the future.He also recalled that current price levels are offsetting losses in the first half of the year. In the last twelve months Colombia coffee exports amounted to 12.39 million bags.