According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Financial Intermediation, and Manufacturing Industries, largely determined the 2.5% increase in GDP during the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds increased 1.7%, boosted by income received from commissions and interest on the loan portfolio, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Explained by the behavior of the Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, and the Manufacturing Industry, during January the Monthly Index of Economic Activity increased by 3.8% with respect to the same period in 2019.
Most of the productive activities showed positive results in the first month of 2020, standing out for their contribution to the global indicator: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds; Manufacturing Industry; Post and Telecoms; and Commerce, informed the Central Bank of Honduras.
During November 2019, the IMAE registered a 2.6% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of Financial Intermediation and the Manufacturing Industry.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
As of November 2019, the volumes produced of goods and services in the country registered a 2.6% increase, with respect to the same period in 2018 (3.7%), according to the original IMAE series; while the cycle trend series denotes a recovery for the second consecutive month, by growing 2.5% year-on-year (3.7% in 2018).
During October, the IMAE registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of the manufacturing industry and the commercial sector.
The original series of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) reflects that, up to October 2019, the national production of goods and services, in terms of volume, grew 2.7% (3.7% in the same period of 2018), reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During September, the IMAE registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase, mainly because of the performance of Construction and Commercial Activity.
At the end of the third quarter of the current year, the original IMAE series reached 2.7% cumulative variation (3.5% in the same period in 2018). Meanwhile, the trend cycle series showed a 2.2% year-on-year variation (3.8% in September 2018), reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
During August, the IMAE in Honduras registered a 2.4% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of financial intermediation, insurance and pension funds.
The economic activities with positive behavior were: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Mail and Telecom, Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, to a lesser extent contributed Private Construction and Electricity and Water, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
Up to July of this year, economic activity in the country grew 2.8%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in the previous month.
The economic activities highlighted for their contribution to the overall result of the indicator were: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Post and Telecom, Commerce and Manufacturing Industry, as well as Private Construction and Electricity and Water, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Construction and financial intermediation largely determined the 1.9% increase in GDP in the second quarter of the year compared with the same period in 2018.
Financial Intermediation increased 1.2% during the second quarter of 2019, explained by the increase in income received by financial institutions from commissions on financial services (credit and debit cards, drafts and transfers, account management and trusts), plus interest derived from the credit portfolio, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Economic activity in the country registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase up to May, an increase that is explained in part by the behavior of Trade in goods and services, and private Construction.
For the fifth month, the economic activities that stood out for their contribution were: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Post and Telecommunications, Commerce, Manufacturing Industry, Electricity and Water, and Private Construction, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Financial Intermediation and the Manufacturing Industry determined to a large extent the 3.5% increase registered in the Gross Domestic Product during the first quarter of the year, with respect to the same period of 2018.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
The following activities stand out for their contribution to the quarter's results: Financial Intermediation (0.5 pp); Manufacturing Industry (0.2 pp); and Transport and Storage (0.1 pp) 5/ ; however, growth was attenuated by negative behavior in Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries; and Construction (0.2 pp each).
As of April, economic activity in the country registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase, an increase mainly due to the behavior of financial intermediation.
Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds grew 6.9% during the fourth month of the year, a result caused by the positive behavior of Financial Intermediation (7.1%), sustained by the increase in interest received on the portfolio of loans and commissions on credits granted, as well as by the use of credit cards, explains the report of the Central Bank of Honduras.
Mainly explained by the economic activity reported in the financial and manufacturing sectors, during March the IMAE in Honduras grew 3.2% with respect to the same month in 2017.
From the report of the Central Bank of Honduras:
During the first three months of 2019, the original IMAE series shows a 2.9% growth (3.0% in 2018); meanwhile, the trend series cycle2/ reached a 3.2% year-on-year rate (3.5% in March 2018).
Mainly because of the economic activity reported in the financial and services sector, during February the IMAE in Honduras grew 3.7% with respect to the same month in 2017.
For its contribution to the overall result of the indicator, the following activities are noteworthy: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Post and Telecommunications, Trade; Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries, Private Construction, Hotels and Restaurants, and Electricity and Water, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
The behavior of the activities of Financial Intermediation, Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries, explained part of the year-on-year increase of almost 5% reported in the Gross Domestic Product during 2018.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the seasonally adjusted series reflected a real GDPT4 growth of 1.2% over the previous quarter, year-on-year (compared to the fourth quarter of 2017) was observed a rise of 4.2%, so the accumulated annual variation rate stood at 3.7%, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).