The economic expectations of entrepreneurs have fallen, in particular because of the business climate, with projections for the rest of 2016 being for less private and public investment.
From the Executive summary of the II Economic Situation Report by Funides:
In the first four months of 2016 the Nicaraguan economy behaved as predicted by FUNIDES in its first Economic Situation Report, with the exception of exports, which were projected to be more vigorous than were actually recorded.
In May 2016 the economy registered an annual increase of 5.4%, mainly explained by agricultural and financial intermediation activities.
From the Monthly Index of Economic Activity report:
In May, the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE) grew by 5.4 percent compared to May 20152.The annual average change was 5.1 percent and cumulative growth in the January-May period stood at 4.6 percent.
A higher rate of growth in the services sector and better performance of agricultural activities are responsible for the annual increase of 4.7% in economic activity.
From the Central Bank's Economic Situation report:
The monthly index of economic activity (IMAE), an indicator that approximates the short termgrowth of the country in Apr-16 showed a variation in the trend cycle of 4.7%, higher by 2.9 percentage points (pp) than figure in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average rate during this period was 5.0% (1.9% in Apr-15).This behavior is due to the higher growth rate of most service industries, coupled with improved performance of the agricultural and manufacturing activities which reversed and accentuated their recovery, when compared with the negative rates shown in much of 2015.
Despite growing by 3.39% year on year in April, ending the downward trend seen in the growth rate, the commercial sector reported a weakening of sales.
A report by the Bank of Guatemala notes that"...up to April 2016 economic activity, measured by estimating the IMAE, increased by 3.4% (3.0% in April 2015).This result was driven by the positive performance seen mainly in the following economic activities: Manufacturing Industries; Wholesale and Retail sales; Financial, intermediation, insurance and auxiliary activities; private services; Transport, storage and communications; and supply of electricity and water collection. "
The growth of almost 9% in financial intermediation explained much of the dynamism in economic activity in April 2016, which grew by 3.3% yoy.
From a report by the Central Bank of Honduras:
The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), measured by its original series up to April 2016 stood 3.4% (4.1% in 2015).This increase in domestic production of goods and services was influenced by the performance of Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds; Agriculture, forestry and fishing; the Manufacturing industry; Post and Telecommunications; Electricity and Water.
Official figures show an increase of 7% in credit extended to private sector companies up until April 2016.
From a report by the Central Bank of El Salvador:
In the international environment it was highlighted that the US maintains its strong labor market and its annual inflation is close to 1%.At the level of international prices it shows that the value of oil continues to increase, but remains at lower levels than previous years.
The Bank of Guatemala is keeping the leading rate at 3% arguing that the economy is keeping up a steady rate of growth of between 3% and 4%, in line with expectations for this year.
From the statement "Summary of the arguments to determine the level of monetary policy rate session 19-2016:
In the internal environment, the Acting Chairman highlighted the evolution of economic activity, measured by the IMAE trend-cycle, which in February recorded a variation of 3.4%, consistent with the annual estimate of economic growth of between 3.1% and 3.9% for this year. In the external sector, in February, it was noted that exports went down by 3.3%, a result of a decrease in volume (4.5%), which offset the slight increase in the average export price; while imports fell 4.2% as a result of the fall in the average price (14.0%), especially of fuels and lubricants, while the volume of imports recorded an increase (11.6%). In addition, it was noted that foreign exchange earnings from remittances continue to reflect a significant dynamism, supporting private consumption. Regarding the nominal exchange rate, it was emphasized that this is evolving according to its fundamentals, remaining stable so far this year.
In the third month of 2016 economic activity recorded an annual increase of 3.6%, mainly due to the performance of the financial and insurance sectors and agriculture and livestock.
From the monthly report by the Central Bank of Honduras:
National economic activity, monitored through the original IMAE series, showed an increase of 3.6% (3.8% in 2015) up to March 2016.
In the first quarter the economy grew by 5% compared to the same period in 2015, recording growth of 6.1% up to March.
From the report of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity:
In March, the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE by its initials in Spanish) showed growth of 4.0 percent year on year, with the annual average variation reaching 4.8 percent, and cumulative growth in the January-March period, 5.0 percent.
In the first quarter the economy grew by almost 5% compared to the same period in 2015, driven mainly by the performance of manufacturing companies in free zones.
From the Monthly Economic Activity Report by the Central Bank:
The country's output, measured by the trend-cycle series of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (MEAI), grew in the first quarter of 2016 by 4.8%, higher by 2.8 percentage points (pp) compared to the same period last year.
In the first two months, economic activity grew by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2015, driven by the activities of transport, storage and communications and mining and quarrying.
From the Index of Monthly Economic Activity report by the Comptroller:
The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE by its initials in Spanich) in the Republic for January-February 2016, measured in terms of the original series at 1996 prices, grew by 4.21 percent compared to the same period in 2015.
Dynamism continues to characterize the Nicaraguan economy, which in January recorded an increase of 4.3% compared to the same month in 2015 and growth of 6%.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank:
The BCN issued on April 14th 2016 the monthly index for Economic Activity (IMAE by its initials in Spanish) for the month of January this year.
The report indicates that the IMAE reflected a growth of 4.3 percent compared to January last year and an annual average of 4.6 percent.
Up to the second month of the year, economic activity has grown by 2.6%, driven by sectors such as financial intermediation, trade, private services, manufacturing and agriculture.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
Economic activity measured by estimating the IMAE, up to February 2016 showed a growth of 2.6% (5.4% in February 2015).
The Guatemalan economy grew by 4.1% during the last quarter of 2015, driven mainly by buoyant banking and insurance industries.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
In the fourth quarter of 2015 economic activity measured by the estimated real gross domestic product showed growth of 4.1% similar to that observed in the same quarter of the previous year, driven mainly by the dynamism in private consumption spending.
Growth in the production of goods and services in January 2016 was 4.9%, almost 3 percentage points higher than in January 2015.
From the Monthly Economic Activity Report by the Central Bank:
The production of goods and services in the country, measured by the series trend cycle of the Monthly Economic Activity Index, recorded a variation of 4.9% in January 2016, higher by 2.8 percentage points (pp) than it was in the same month of the previous year (2.1%).