Between March 23 and 24 the price of the Quetzal vs. Dollar rose from Q7.67 to Q7.75, which is attributed to the expectations of a possible economic slowdown, due to the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.
The expectations of a decrease in the income of family remittances, the time that the international economy could be depressed and the component of fear in the agents, are other causes of the upward pressure that the exchange rate has reported in the last hours.
Although Guatemala and the U.S. have already signed an agreement on migration issues, the exchange rate reported a slight increase and the upward trend is expected to continue over the next few days.
President Trump's warning to Guatemala to impose export tariffs and taxes on remittances and transfers had a direct impact on the exchange market.
Data from the Banco de Guatemala indicate that between July 23 and 29 the price of the Quetzal with respect to the US dollar increased from Q7.64 to Q7.68, which according to the authorities is explained by the uncertainty generated by the possible sanctions against the country.
Since the beginning of the year Banco de Guatemala has intervened in the foreign exchange market buying foreign currency in order to curb appreciation of the local currency against the dollar, but in recent weeks it has been selling currencies in order to minimize depreciation.
In recent weeks the exchange rate of the Quetzal against the US dollar has been trending upwards, which has forced the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) to sell foreign currency in the foreign exchange market.So far this year, up until September 24, it has had to intervene selling $402 million worth of foreign currency.
In a new attempt to minimize the downward trend registered in the price of the local currency against the dollar, Banco de Guatemala will intervene in the exchange market buying $500 million.
The exchange rate of the Quetzal with respect to the US Dollar has trended downwards since January 2010, when the Quetzal was quoted at Q8.40, falling to Q7.34, according to the latest record available in January 2018.The new measure that is being implemented from today, involves carrying out auctions on the foreign exchange market every Friday, of $50 million each, until a total amount of $500 million has been spent.
By changing the exchange rate rule and issuing certificates of deposit in dollars, the Banguat aims to minimize the downward trend that has been seen for months in the price of the dollar against the Quetzal.
An increasing inflow of remittances coming into the country is the main reason behind the excess of dollars in the economy, a figure that the Bank of Guatemala has estimated at $1 billion.
Although the export sector continues to denounce the loss of competitiveness because of appreciation of the quetzal against the dollar, the Central Bank insists that the exchange rate will remain dependent on market factors.
A year ago the complaint was the same.Exporters asked the Central Bank for a review of the exchange scheme to induce a devaluation that would allow them to recover some of the competitiveness lost abroad because of the exchange rate.The situation today has not changed, and exporting companies have asked for the Ministry of Agriculture to intervene in this matter.
Strong growth of remittances and savings in the oil bill are two of the factors responsible for an increase in the supply of dollars which is putting downward pressure on its price against the quetzal.
Appreciation of the Guatemalan currency against the US currency is also due to lower demand for dollars in the local market, according to statements made by the president of the Bank of Guatemala to S21.gt.