With a new methodology, the Banco de Guatemala determined that the value of the informal economy already adds up to the equivalent of 22% of the Gross Domestic Product.
The new calculation used by the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat) to measure national production now includes the measurement of the informal economy, mainly its participation in productive activity.
Although poor social indicators and a low tax burden are a threat to the country's progress, for Fitch the Guatemalan economy has the capacity to overcome external adversities.
After the last visit of Fitch Ratings to Guatemala, representatives of the rating agency expressed the opinion that health, education and security indicators, together with the tax situation, are issues that should concern the country.
The behavior of credit to the private sector, public spending, imports and remittances would explain the higher growth expected for the economy this year.
The Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that this year's economic growth is projected to range between 3% and 3.8%, with a central value of 3.4%, up from the 3.1% reported during 2018.
The growth of family remittances, the recovery of credit to the private sector and the upturn in investment in capital goods would determine a better economic performance this year.
In a forum organized by the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and Central American Business Intelligence (CABI), agreed that this year the country's economy could register a better performance than in 2018.
The poor performance of the mining sector and the decline in the export price of sugar and coffee could have a negative impact on the outlook for economic growth this year.
According to Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the recent performance of short-term indicators of economic activity such as the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, imports and family remittances, among other things, they anticipate a performance consistent with the estimate for the end of the year, which ranges between 3% and 3.8%.
Explained by the dynamics of economic activity and the flow of family remittances, the Central Bank estimates that this year the economy will grow between 3% and 3.8%.
According to the authorities at Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), by 2019 the expectation is that the economy will grow between 3.1% and 4.1%, and in relation to inflation for this year and next, it is expected that the Growth rate will remain close to 4%.
The Central Bank has reduced the outlook for economic growth this year, arguing that there has been a slow recovery of the global economy and a slowdown in some sectors at the local level.
The Bank of Guatemala has reduced the expected growth rate for 2017 from a range of 3% to 3.4% to a range between 3% and 3.4%.At the local level it is estimated that one ofthe activities that will show reduced performance is construction, whose expected growth rate fell from 3.6% to 3.4%.