For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
Guatemala and El Salvador are the Central American economies that have registered the lowest levels of economic growth, when this is associated with the size of their public sector.
Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica are the countries that would be obtaining exceptional results in their economic growth from the average expenditure of the region during 2011 to 2018, which could be associated with the investment made in past periods, informed the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi).
In one of the regions that receives the least amount of taxes in the world, the tax burden remained relatively stable in 2017.
From the section Fiscal Outlook for Central America, from the report "Macro-fiscal Profiles: 9th edition", by the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
In 2017, the fiscal trajectory of countries in the region remained relatively constant with respect to what was observed in 2016.The following are highlighted as policy orientations: a) lack of political agreements, which transformed into a real impossibility of increasing tax revenues through tax reforms or strengthening the administrative capacity of tax administrations, and b) implementation of austerity programs, which in several countries had a greater impact on capital expenditures, in order to avoid an increase in the fiscal deficit and public sector debt.
Citizens are less than two months away from going to a ballotage to elect a new government without having discussed the country's priority issues, even though some of them require urgent attention and a deep national discussion in order to find a solution.
"Structural weaknesses will continue to constrain Guatemala's economy and credit rating over the medium term"
From a press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-31 March 2017: Structural weaknesses will continue to constrain Guatemala's economy and credit rating over the medium term, says Fitch Ratings. Guatemala's growth rate will rise during 2017 as the effects of the 2015 political crisis gradually fade.
Growth and the external position have been boosted by low oil prices and strong remittances, while the fiscal deficit had declined. However, progress on social objectives is lagging. There are downside risks from global uncertainties and domestic policy constraints.
From the press release by the IMF:
On August 22, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with Guatemala, and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.2
Despite the fact the government has acknowledged that it does not have sufficient resources to pay interest on foreign debt, the agency announced that the country´s risk rating remains unchanged, with a stable outlook.
From a press release issued by Standard & Poor's:
In our view, political instability related to corruption cases will not significantly hurt Guatemala's stable macroeconomic performance this year and in 2016.
International fuding sources may be at risk if the State does not pay the service of the external debt.
Finance officials say they will not have the necessary funds to pay interest on the debt corresponding to November and December, about $142 million. The Deputy Finance Minister, Edwin Martinez, said "... efforts have been made to get the resources, but at this time we have Q700 million ($90 million), which is enough for the payment for this month which is about to end."
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
Very dark is the future of a country where the rulers do not lift their gaze beyond the few years of the mandate conferred on them by citizens.
EDITORIAL
The president of Costa Rica prefers short-term actions to address the fiscal crisis, while leaving open the tap of privileged public wages by which the future of the nation drowns through.
It is clear that immediate measures need to be taken such as reducing tax evasion and smuggling, and cutting abusive pensions. And it is quite possible that in order to maintain the rule of law taxes also need to be raised. But not closing, RIGHT NOW the growing cascade of state payroll costs that is multiplying every year, means mortgaging the future of the Costa Rican economy. However, president Solis postpones dealing with the topic, because its impact would be felt "only after 15 or 18 years."
Noting uncertainty and political instability in the country as the main risk factor for the economy, the rating remains at BB with a stable outlook.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-19 June 2015: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Guatemala's long-term foreign- and local-currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook.
The rating agency has changed the outlook on the rating of foreign debt from stable to negative due to the political crisis in the Guatemalan nation.
From a press release issued by Moody's:
New York, May 26, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today revised the outlook on Guatemala's government bond ratings to negative from stable. Concurrently, Moody's has affirmed the foreign and local currency government's issuer ratings and senior unsecured ratings at Ba1.
Increased borrowing costs, a disincentive to foreign investment and distrust of economic performance, are part of the expected scenario if public debt growth is not controlled.
Prensalibre.com reports that "... The draft budget for 2015 presented by the Ministry of Finance, amounting to $9.250 million (Q71 thousand 840.8 million), contemplates taking on new debt of about $2 billion (Q15 billion), of which $1.6 billion (Q12 thousand 334 million) came from bonds and loans. "
The fiscal deficit of 2.3% proposed for the 2014 budget would cause such an increase in the Guatemalan public that could put monetary policy at risk.
In 2014 Guatemala's public debt will increase and it will be approximately $14.670 billion, equivalent to 25.5% of the country's GDP, explained Edgar Barquín, president of the Bank of Guatemala.
The tax burden was placed at 10.9%, as a result of a tax proceeds of $5.912 million, 8.1% higher than in 2012.
Guatemala's fiscal deficit ended the year at 2.2%, below the Government's initial estimate of 2.5 %.
From a press release by the Ministry of Finance:
The Ministry of Finance reports that at the close of the fiscal accounts for 2013 has been completed and given results that demonstrate the efficient and sound management of fiscal policy. The deficit stood at 2.2% of GDP, a level that fosters macroeconomic stability and economic development. The delay in approving budget support loans and behavior of tax revenues represented adversities which were properly dealt with.