For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
Guatemala and El Salvador are the Central American economies that have registered the lowest levels of economic growth, when this is associated with the size of their public sector.
Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica are the countries that would be obtaining exceptional results in their economic growth from the average expenditure of the region during 2011 to 2018, which could be associated with the investment made in past periods, informed the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi).
In one of the regions that receives the least amount of taxes in the world, the tax burden remained relatively stable in 2017.
From the section Fiscal Outlook for Central America, from the report "Macro-fiscal Profiles: 9th edition", by the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
In 2017, the fiscal trajectory of countries in the region remained relatively constant with respect to what was observed in 2016.The following are highlighted as policy orientations: a) lack of political agreements, which transformed into a real impossibility of increasing tax revenues through tax reforms or strengthening the administrative capacity of tax administrations, and b) implementation of austerity programs, which in several countries had a greater impact on capital expenditures, in order to avoid an increase in the fiscal deficit and public sector debt.
Citizens are less than two months away from going to a ballotage to elect a new government without having discussed the country's priority issues, even though some of them require urgent attention and a deep national discussion in order to find a solution.
When public resources are very limited, as it happens in Central American countries, association schemes between the State and the private sector become essential for developing the infrastructure that the region so badly needs.
A report from the Secretariat of Economic Integration (Sieca) states that "...In Central America, growing fiscal constraints faced by the countriespublic sectors make it increasingly difficult to achieve efforts for long-term infrastructure projects.In this context, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) become relevant as an alternative measure of financing where private participation sector is facilitated in partnership with the government, with the aim of improving quality of services, reducing operating costs and capital, generating additional income, improving public management and minimizing budget spending.
In 2016, the ratio between total expenditure of central governments of the countries of the region and GDP remained almost unchanged from the previous year, going from 18.3% to 18.6%.
From the report "Macroeconomic Profiles: 8th edition", from the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
The Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi) presented its most recent edition of the Macro-Fiscal Profiles of Central America, which contains an analysis of the fiscal situation of Central America and each of the countries of the region, at the end of fiscal year 2016, as well as the main lines contained in the budgets approved for 2017.The publication includes in this opportunity a revision to the main indicators related to the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Objectives 2030 -ODS 2030- and raises the urgent need to make progress in a new fiscal agenda that allows the effective attention of these commitments in the short term.
In 2016 the size of the governments in the Central American countries grew very little, the tax burden reached 14.3%, and the average fiscal deficit was about 2.8% of GDP.
From the department of Fiscal Outlook for Central America, from the report "Macrofiscal Profiles: 7th Edition", by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
From 2014 to 2015 the size of central governments remained constant at an average 18.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
From the introduction of the report: "Macrofiscal Profiles: 6th Edition" by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
2015 proved to be a period of low tax advance for the Central American region. On average, the size of central governments remained constant compared to 2014, at 18.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). However, not all nations maintained this trend in the same way. While the governments of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador, some of the largest fiscally in the region, continued to increase their participation in the economy, reporting increases of 1.5, 0.7 and 0.7% of GDP, respectively, the Government of Guatemala - one of the smallest in the world became even smaller, being reduced by 1.2% of GDP. For its part, the Government of Honduras reported a small decrease of 0.2% of GDP, fully converged with its policy of fiscal austerity, while that of Panama had a transient contraction of 1.4%, reflecting a reorganization established by the new administration and that, according to the plans for 2016, will be reversed in full.
As in old fashioned patriarchal homes, if there must be suffering, the first to suffer are the stepchildren, and only afterwards, if necessary, the legitimate children.
EDITORIAL
The announcement by the Solis administration that it has a plan B in case it does not manage to get legislative approval for the proposed tax increases designed to address the serious and growing fiscal deficit, highlights the existence in Costa Rica of first class citizens and second class citizens.
Using its corporate power and taking advantage of the power vacuum that is afflicting the State, a public university in Costa Rica is paying first world salaries, exacerbating the inequality that exists between Costa Ricans and severely distorting the labor market.
EDITORIAL
The degeneration of democracy which is happening in a lot of Latin American countries has Costa Rica as an example, a country which historically used to be a shining example of the best way to live in society.
The agency has changed the outlook from stable to negative, warning that there is still a lack a political consensus for approving a fiscal adjustment to reduce costs and improve the debt / GDP ratio.
The lack of political consensus to reduce the fiscal deficit will continue to put pressure on the government's rising debt burden.
While the Northern Triangle countries strive to reduce or at least maintain constant levels of debt / GDP, Costa Rica and Panama move further away from fiscal discipline, the former at the greatest pace.
From the introduction of a report entitled "Macrofiscal Profiles : 4th Edition." by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
In the area of prioritizing economic stability over the availability of resources to finance development, the countries of the northern triangle in Central America, have generally shown a significant effort to reduce or at least maintain constant levels are Debt / GDP and the fiscal deficit, which means that, tacitly, the fiscal rule of zero growth of public debt is being used, despite the impact this may have on the welfare of the people.
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
Very dark is the future of a country where the rulers do not lift their gaze beyond the few years of the mandate conferred on them by citizens.
EDITORIAL
The president of Costa Rica prefers short-term actions to address the fiscal crisis, while leaving open the tap of privileged public wages by which the future of the nation drowns through.
It is clear that immediate measures need to be taken such as reducing tax evasion and smuggling, and cutting abusive pensions. And it is quite possible that in order to maintain the rule of law taxes also need to be raised. But not closing, RIGHT NOW the growing cascade of state payroll costs that is multiplying every year, means mortgaging the future of the Costa Rican economy. However, president Solis postpones dealing with the topic, because its impact would be felt "only after 15 or 18 years."
With the exception of improvements in Nicaragua and Honduras, in the rest of the Central American countries problems in public finances range from latent in Panama and already serious in Guatemala, to critical in Costa Rica and El Salvador.
From the report "Macrofiscal Profiles: 4th Edition" by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):