For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
The country issued $500 million in the international market with a 12-year term, at a rate of 5.37%, and $700 million in the 30-year term, at an interest rate of 6.13%.
The operation was carried out through the Bank of America (BOFA), one of the most important investment banks in the world, chosen through a competitive process, informed the Public Finance Ministry (Minfin).
With the deadline for Congress to approve the 2020 public budget expiring, the Guatemalan government must work with the 2019 budget, so some investments in public infrastructure could come to a halt in the first months of the year.
Last November 30, the deadline for the Congress of the Republic to approve the draft budget of income and expenditures of the nation for 2020, which amounted to Q91.9 billion ($11.9 billion) and was not endorsed by most deputies.
The authorities that will assume the government in 2020 in Guatemala could evaluate options to tax temporarily some sectors, however, there would be a risk that these taxes become permanent.
Guatemala and El Salvador are the Central American economies that have registered the lowest levels of economic growth, when this is associated with the size of their public sector.
Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica are the countries that would be obtaining exceptional results in their economic growth from the average expenditure of the region during 2011 to 2018, which could be associated with the investment made in past periods, informed the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi).
Insufficient resources to finance public spending and the accumulation of outstanding tax credit repayments are some of the problems that the government will face in Guatemala in 2020.
According to the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi), the new government should make an important effort to improve the effectiveness of the Superintendence of Tax Administration, since the percentage of non-compliance with Value Added Tax (VAT) has been growing since 2012 and the percentage of income tax and other taxes is unknown.
Between 2014 and 2017, the fiscal deficit increased to an average of 1.4% of GDP, and for this year the authorities plan to end at 1.6% and in 2019 it could increase to 2.5%.
Representatives of the Ministry of Public Finance informed that some of the increase in the fiscal deficit foreseen for next year will be caused by the fact that the General Budget of Income and Expenditure of the State for Fiscal Year 2019, which will ascend to $11,390 million, will allow assigning more resources for infrastructure maintenance.
Up to August, the external and internal public debt amounted to $18.463 billion, equivalent to 23.4% of the country's Gross Domestic Product.
According to figures from the Ministry of Public Finance, in the last nine years the debt to GDP ratio has slightly varied, between 23.3% and 24.8%.
Regarding the country's indebtedness level, Abelardo Medina, senior economist at the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies, said to Dca.gob.gt that "... It is interesting to note that, although Guatemala reports the lowest level of debt in the region and one of the lowest in the world, the evaluation given by risk rating agencies does not reach investment level. This is a product of political instability but, especially, it is due to the limited size of its fiscal revenues."
Treasury debt securities were adjudicated in Quetzales for fifteen years and at a rate of 6.5%.
From a statement issued by the Ministry of Finance:
May 15, 2018.The Ministry of Public Finance held the 16th placement event forTreasury Bonds of the Republic of Guatemala in Fiscal Year 2018, the results of which are as follows:
In one of the regions that receives the least amount of taxes in the world, the tax burden remained relatively stable in 2017.
From the section Fiscal Outlook for Central America, from the report "Macro-fiscal Profiles: 9th edition", by the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
In 2017, the fiscal trajectory of countries in the region remained relatively constant with respect to what was observed in 2016.The following are highlighted as policy orientations: a) lack of political agreements, which transformed into a real impossibility of increasing tax revenues through tax reforms or strengthening the administrative capacity of tax administrations, and b) implementation of austerity programs, which in several countries had a greater impact on capital expenditures, in order to avoid an increase in the fiscal deficit and public sector debt.
Citizens are less than two months away from going to a ballotage to elect a new government without having discussed the country's priority issues, even though some of them require urgent attention and a deep national discussion in order to find a solution.
The Morales administration intends to continue with the issuance in 2018 of Treasury bonds aimed at small investors, with investment amounts ranging from between $3 thousand and $68 thousand.
The measure will give continuity to what was done in the previous year, when 35 small investors acquired debt bonds for $1.3 million at a rate of 6.25%.
When public resources are very limited, as it happens in Central American countries, association schemes between the State and the private sector become essential for developing the infrastructure that the region so badly needs.
A report from the Secretariat of Economic Integration (Sieca) states that "...In Central America, growing fiscal constraints faced by the countriespublic sectors make it increasingly difficult to achieve efforts for long-term infrastructure projects.In this context, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) become relevant as an alternative measure of financing where private participation sector is facilitated in partnership with the government, with the aim of improving quality of services, reducing operating costs and capital, generating additional income, improving public management and minimizing budget spending.
The Morales administration plans to increase indebtedness next year, but with the objective of generating a "shock" of growth in investment in public infrastructure.
In the 2018 budget, the Ministry of Finance plans to increase indebtedness and consequently the fiscal deficit, but with the purpose of increasing investment in road infrastructure, such as roads and bridges. In the 2018 draft budget, the debt ceiling could reach $11.9 billion.
In 2016, the ratio between total expenditure of central governments of the countries of the region and GDP remained almost unchanged from the previous year, going from 18.3% to 18.6%.
From the report "Macroeconomic Profiles: 8th edition", from the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
The Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi) presented its most recent edition of the Macro-Fiscal Profiles of Central America, which contains an analysis of the fiscal situation of Central America and each of the countries of the region, at the end of fiscal year 2016, as well as the main lines contained in the budgets approved for 2017.The publication includes in this opportunity a revision to the main indicators related to the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Objectives 2030 -ODS 2030- and raises the urgent need to make progress in a new fiscal agenda that allows the effective attention of these commitments in the short term.