After two months of supposed 'deflation', year-over-year price variation become positive once again.
For July and August 2009, the inter-annual variation of the Consumer Prices Index (IPC), recorded lows of -0.3% and -0.73%. These negatives values implied the economy was entering a deflationary process (generalized reduction of prices). However, in September, year-on-year variation was positive once again (0.03%), and reversed a negative trend in place since the beginning of the year.
In Guatemala, the consumer price index for July registered an inter-annual variation of -0.3%, and this trend could continue in August.
The last time inter-annual inflation was negative was in July 1984, 25 years ago.
"However, the Central Bank of Guatemala affirms that to declare a 'deflationary process' (a generalized drop in prices), there has to be at least two months of consecutive negative inter-annual inflation", reported journalist Lorena Alvarez in an article in El Periódico.
An increase of 14% in corn production and a fall of 27.8% in Coffee production are just some of the data from the 2008 survey.
The data published by the National Institute of Statistics point out the existence of 778,633 farms, which for the most part are growing permanent and semi-permanent crops on a surface of 7.691 million ‘manzanas’.
Leonel Diaz writes in his article for Prensalibre.com: “Out of all this land, 7 million ‘manzanas’ are owned; 432,440 are being rented; 25,339 in usufruct; 36,968 in colonies, and 42,791 are occupied, the rest are of other types.”
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics, the accumulated inflation rate (from January to May) was -1.05 and prices increased .13% in May.
For seven consecutive months, this indicator has decreased. One of its lowest levels in recent years was reported in May.
Prensalibre.com highlighted statements by Luis Arroyo, the director of the Department of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of INE: "It is probable that we will enter a period of deflation because we still have the three months that were the highest last year remaining. Furthermore, we have noticed that the variations of this year seem to be in a free fall."
As of March, consumer prices showed a variation of -0.25%, according to data from the Institute of Statistics(INE).
The values recorded in the past four months indicate that the economy is showing signs of deflation (-0.38% in December, -0.42% in January, -0.60% in February and -0.25% in March), explained Luis Arroyo, director of the INE.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) positioned itself at -0.60%, leaving behind the -0.42% recorded in January
Jessica Gramajo wrote in the Siglo 21 website: "While some economic analysts believe that this behavior could lead to deflation, others indicate that this situation is still far from being the case. Luis Arroyo, director of the Department of Statistics at the National Statistical Institute (INE), stated that the whole world is going through a similar situation, a product of the existing recession; mainly in industrialized countries like the United States and Japan "
The Consumer Price Index registered a decrease of 0.42% in the month of January
Elperiodico.com.gt in its website publishes: "Thus, Luis Arroyo, Director of the IPC of the National Institute of Statistics (INE), has affirmed that this is the first time in 25 years that there has been a fall in prices during January."
The figure is the highest on record since 1996 when it was at 10.85%, according to the National Statics Institute (INE).
According to prensalibre.com "According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was presented yesterday by the INE, inflation for December 2008 was above the 5.5% target that was set by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
"It is the biggest in the series, but the elements that cause the increase in prices were more violent in 2008 than in recent years," commented Carlos Gonzalez Arevalo, an analyst at the Association for Social Investigation and Studies (Asies)."
Surveys carried out by the National Statistics Insitutue (INE) determined that inflation (for the last 12 months) drop 0.94 percentage points, compared to August of last year.
Drop in price of goods such as tomatoes, potatoes, beans, gasoline, propane, for example, caused the cost of living (inflation) to record a new slow down last September, according to the month report from INE.
The National Institute of Statistics reported that inflation for August was 0.5%, confirming a slow-down in the prices with regards to the month of July (1.25%) and June (1.63%).
Nonetheless, accumulated inflation is still at 9.43%, which is double that of August 2007 (4.67%) and above the 7% target set for the year by the Monetary Board. Inter-annual inflation was at 13.69% (14.16% for June).
Interannual inflation (for the last 12 months) rose to 14.16% in July, the highest since August 1993, the National Institute of Statistics reported.
The basic food basket for a family of five now costs Q1,941.65 per month, a rise of Q367.60 when compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the basic vital basket, which includes others expenses such as education, transport and health, shot up to Q3,543.16, or Q670.81 more than in July 2007.
The president of the Guatemala's Central Bank, María Antonieta de Bonilla, is worried about the current economic situation in hre country and predicts the coming of stricter credit conditions.
Del Bonilla made her comments in an interview with the newspaper Prensa Libre, following an announcement by the National Statistics Institute that reported an annual inflation rate of 13.56 percent in June, far above this year's goal of 5.5 percent plus or minus 1.5 percent.
Inflation in Guatemala over the last 12-month period reached 13.56 percent in June, the National Statistics Institute reported.
Cumulative inflation for the first half of the year came to 7.54 percent, compared with the 7 percent target for the whole year that was set by the Monetary Board.
Twelve-month inflation in transport and communications reached 20.75 percent in June, while food and beverages came to 18.93 percent.
The economic crisis is causing social disintegration with unpredictable consequences, says columnist Mario Fuentes Destarac in the Guatemala newspaper El Periodico.
He cites figures from the National Statistics Institute of Guatemala saying that inflation between January and May reached 5.82 percent, while prices are 12.24 percent higher than they were in May 2007.
Inflation is a world-wide problem, said Julio Suárez, vice-president of Guatemala's central bank, Banguat. Suárez was replying to a question on the nation's current annual inflation rate of 12.24 percent.
Suárez said the the rate of inflation was slowing down. Prices, he said, rose by 1.4 percent in May compared with 1.43 percent in April. Meanwhile, inflation was worse in April in Costa Rica (1.9 percent) and Honduras (1.8 percent) than in Guatemala.