The risks are: uncertainty about sustainability of public finances, increasing dollarization of the loan portfolio, and inflationary pressures from excess liquidity.
In its commentary on the national economy No. 5-2016 of May 2, 2016, the Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica said:
The Central Bank has cut its growth forecast for GDP for the year to 4% - 4.5% and expects inflation to be between 6.55% and 7.5%, higher than initially expected.
From the executive summary of the report "State of the Economy and Prospects, First Semester 2014":
At the end of the first half of the year, the Nicaraguan economy is maintaining positive growth rate, mainly driven by external demand and improved terms of trade. The exporting agricultural sector has been the main driver of economic dynamism in 2014, alongside growth in the manufacturing industry.
A joint report by the Central Bank of Guatemala confirms the outlook for economic growth of between 3.3% and 3.9% for 2014.
From a summary of a report by the Banguat entitled "Economic Situation and Prospects of the country":
The world economy is recovering and the pace of growth has rebounded, particularly in advanced economies, emerging economies have weakened but are still explaining the dynamism on global growth; although downside risks are still present.
The mission that visited the country is now recommending rationalizing public spending and developing a domestic bond market debt to improve the conditions of the financial system.
During 2013 the Guatemalan economy continued to recover and show dynamism in most sectors in the country.
The Monetary Authority of Guatemala notes that in 2013 the country had a satisfactory rate of economic activity consistent with the recovery that has been seen in the world economy.
The Central Bank has presented its analysis of the recent performance of the economy and its arguments for maintaining the leading rate at 5%.
From a report by the Banguat:
"The performance of economic activity remains consistent with the annual estimates of GDP growth (3.2% -3.6%), which is reflected in the dynamism of some short-term indicators such as quarterly GDP, IMAE, means of payment, bank credit to the private sector, the volume of imports and exports and remittances. "
"Panama is still one of the fastest growing countries in the Americas."
A mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Corinne Delechat, visited Panama from 7 to November 18 to conduct the annual Article IV Consultation (1). At the end of the discussion, Ms. Delechat issued the following statement in Panama City:
Though it is currently doing well, there are various factors that could hamper the country's future performance.
The volatility of the international oil price, which affects prices paid locally, as well as uncertainty about the transparency of the electoral process due to take place in November, are two of the clouds on Nicaragua's economic horizon.
The economy performed favorably in the first half of the year; the only concern was the increase in inflation.
Nicaragua’s Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUNDES) presented its second economic situation report of 2010, concluding that the government’s management of the economy remains responsible, but it is worried by increased expenses and some off-budget costs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report sheds a positive light on the country's macroeconomic situation and the stability of its financial system.
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Guatemala during August 17-26, 2010 to conduct the fourth and final review of the Stand-By Arrangement approved in April 2009. The mission met with Minister of Finance Edgar Balsells; Central Bank Governor María Antonieta de Bonilla; Superintendent of Banks Edgar Barquín; other senior government officials, and representatives of the private sector.
FUNIDES, the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development, unveiled its first economic situation report of 2010.
“Our report presents a balance of the economy up to September 2009, the results of the most recent business and consumer confidence surveys, an analysis of the Government’s economic and social program, and comparative data on Nicaragua’s competitiveness versus that of Central America”.
IMF advices: contain current spending, especially the wage bill, and strengthen the finances of public enterprises, public pension funds, and municipalities.
March 25, 2010
Mario Garza, resident representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Tegucigalpa, issued the following statement today:
“With the objective of assessing developments and the near-term outlook of the Honduran economy, an IMF mission met with President Porfirio Lobo, the economic cabinet, congress, and private sector representatives. The mission wishes to thank the authorities for their excellent cooperation and candid discussions. In 2009, the global economic slowdown and the political crisis contributed to an economic contraction of 2 percent. In the fiscal area, despite a decline in public investment, the fiscal deficit rose markedly due to a substantial increase in current spending, mainly the wage bill, leading to a large increase in the public domestic debt. In the context of an expansionary monetary policy, the increase of central bank credit to the public sector contributed to a loss of international reserves. The authorities and the mission shared the view that maintaining expansionary policies is not sustainable and that a solid macroeconomic framework is required to foster economic growth in Honduras.
The current crisis is still unveiling and its broader regional reach and consequences are still unknown. What is known is that the impact is undeniable.
Even though the region has not experienced an immediate effect, its important to wonder how the macroeconomic adjustment may happen in our countries.
First of all, in the last years the region has experienced an improvement in its economic fundamentals, even though the external situation has dampened it, specially when compared to the rest of Latin America. This external effects are outside the reach of internal economic policy.
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