"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Due to the recent strike in the construction sector, the entity has reduced projections of economic growth for this year from 5.6% to 4.6%.
However, recovery from the impact of the strike and the entry into operation of a large copper mine will lead to an upward revision of around one percentage point in the growth projection of 5.8% for 2019.
Supported by greater growth in the US economy, better monetary conditions and a moderate boost in government spending, growth should accelerate gradually until it reaches a rate of 3.6% in 2019.
The mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes the macroeconomic stability that has been achieved, but warns of a need to approve a fiscal reform that allows the tax burden to be increased to at least 15% of GDP, and allocate that additional income to public investment, especially in social development, particularly pre-primary education, preventive health care and greater pension coverage.
In its review of the monetary program, the Central Bank has raised the expected economic growth rate for the biennium 2017-18, from 3.4% - 3.7%, to 3.7% - 4.1%.
From the executive summary of the report "Review of the 2017-18 monetary program" by the Central Bank:
The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH), in fulfillment of its powers, presents the Monetary Program (MP) Review 2017-2018 published in March of this year. This document contains an update of the macroeconomic framework for the aforementioned biennium, adapting it to thefirst half of year of the international and domestic economy, as well as to the latest perspectives on the world economy.
Forecasts are for lower economic growth this year, driven by a weakening of the terms of trade and more restrictive financial conditions, caused by the high fiscal deficit.
From a press release issued by the IMF:
I. Recent Developments
1. Both output and growth are at potential, while inflation has reemerged and is rising moderately.
It is expected that economic growth will increase slightly to 5.1% in 2017, and about 5.5% in the medium term, supported by the expanded Canal and developing investment projects.
From a press release issued by the IMF:
Panama’s economy is expected to remain among the most dynamic in the region. The economic outlook is favorable, albeit set against the backdrop of heightened external uncertainty.
Economic growth will range between 3.3% and 3.7% in 2016, led by banking, communications, agriculture, manufacturing, and recovery in the construction sector.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank:
The Board of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH) in fulfilling its tasks, on February 17, 2016 by Resolution No.56-2 / 2016, approved the 2016-2017 Monetary Programme, which contains guidelines and policy actions, related to credit and exchange in the country, to be implemented in this biennium, based on the recent national macroeconomic performance and behavior and outlook for the world economy.
The Central Bank has cut its growth forecast for GDP for the year to 4% - 4.5% and expects inflation to be between 6.55% and 7.5%, higher than initially expected.
From the executive summary of the report "State of the Economy and Prospects, First Semester 2014":
At the end of the first half of the year, the Nicaraguan economy is maintaining positive growth rate, mainly driven by external demand and improved terms of trade.
The mission that visited the country is now recommending rationalizing public spending and developing a domestic bond market debt to improve the conditions of the financial system.
From a press Release issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF ) :
"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Przemek Gajdeczka visited Managua from 6 to 14 May 2014.