"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
As a result of the economic slowdown and the imbalance in public finances, Costa Rica faces a complex and high-risk future, in which the margins for action and maneuver will be increasingly limited.
The State of the Nation 2019 report explains that the economic slowdown and imbalance in public finances created a scenario of great complexity and risk, both economic and political, which aggravated the structural weaknesses or "blind spots" of the national development style.
For the IMF, the political agreements reached by the elected government in El Salvador with the parties that dominate the Legislative Assembly will be crucial for the successful implementation of a country agenda.
The IMF staff team visited San Salvador during March 11—22 for the 2019 Article IV consultation and held candid discussions with the current authorities, the President-elect, parliamentarians, business community, and social partners.
According to the IMF, in the first half of the year, the Salvadoran economy increased above the estimated potential, the inflation remained low and the fiscal position was better than expected.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Ms. Alina Carare, visited San Salvador from November 12 to 16, 2018 to discuss recent economic and financial developments.
Following the IMF assessment, the country's macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain strong and growth is expected to be solid in coming years.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
November 16th, 2018. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Esteban Vesperoni visited Tegucigalpa from November 12-16 to assess recent economic developments since the completion of the 2018 Article IV consultation in May and the medium-term outlook. At the end of the visit, Mr. Vesperoni issued the following statement:
The State of the Nation 2018 Report explains that during 2017 and the first months of 2018 the progress of Costa Rica's economy has been adverse and, in the short term, the prospects for economic opportunities, solvency and stability are negative.
Most of the drivers of Costa Rica's economy have declined in recent months, resulting in Costa Rica going through a period of multiple economic and political risks.
Preserving macroeconomic and financial stability and restoring private sector confidence are part of the IMF's recommendations to the Nicaraguan government to mitigate the impact of the political and economic crisis.
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Nicaragua, and after evaluating the situation of the economy after more than six months of social and political crisis, forecasts a 4% contraction of the Gross Domestic Product by 2018.
Due to the recent strike in the construction sector, the entity has reduced projections of economic growth for this year from 5.6% to 4.6%.
<span dir="ltr">However, recovery from the impact of the strike and the entry into operation of a large copper mine will lead to an upward revision of around one percentage point in the growth projection of 5.8% for 2019.
Supported by greater growth in the US economy, better monetary conditions and a moderate boost in government spending, growth should accelerate gradually until it reaches a rate of 3.6% in 2019.
The mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes the macroeconomic stability that has been achieved, but warns of a need to approve a fiscal reform that allows the tax burden to be increased to at least 15% of GDP, and allocate that additional income to public investment, especially in social development, particularly pre-primary education, preventive health care and greater pension coverage.
The fiscal deficit stands at historically low levels, inflation is moderate and the macroeconomic perspective is positive, but a continuous effort is required to improve social indicators.
From a statement issued by the IMF:
21 November 2017: The authorities’ commitment to their reform agenda has remained strong during the program, which has successfully stabilized the economy, restored confidence, and paved the way for accelerating growth and reducing poverty.
In its review of the monetary program, the Central Bank has raised the expected economic growth rate for the biennium 2017-18, from 3.4% - 3.7%, to 3.7% - 4.1%.
From the executive summary of the report "Review of the 2017-18 monetary program" by the Central Bank:
The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH), in fulfillment of its powers, presents the Monetary Program (MP) Review 2017-2018 published in March of this year. This document contains an update of the macroeconomic framework for the aforementioned biennium, adapting it to thefirst half of year of the international and domestic economy, as well as to the latest perspectives on the world economy.
Forecasts are for lower economic growth this year, driven by a weakening of the terms of trade and more restrictive financial conditions, caused by the high fiscal deficit.
From a press release issued by the IMF:
I. Recent Developments
1. Both output and growth are at potential, while inflation has reemerged and is rising moderately.
The Bank of Guatemala has kept the lead monetary policy rate at 3%, arguing that high levels of uncertainty still persist in the external economic environment.
From the report "Recent macroeconomic performance and prospects," by the Bank of Guatemala :
It is expected that economic growth will increase slightly to 5.1% in 2017, and about 5.5% in the medium term, supported by the expanded Canal and developing investment projects.
Panama’s economy is expected to remain among the most dynamic in the region. The economic outlook is favorable, albeit set against the backdrop of heightened external uncertainty. Panama’s growth model relies on its ability to remain a competitive and attractive destination for international financial, business, and transportation services. Continued progress with tax transparency and financial integrity are essential to preserve this growth model. Commitment to fiscal discipline and efforts to strengthen the fiscal framework and enhance institutional capacities contribute to ensuring sustainability, and need to be complemented by a comprehensive monitoring of fiscal risks. As a regional financial center, the comprehensive monitoring of systemic risks and a strong macroprudential and crisis management framework are important to safeguard financial stability.
The agency highlights the country's macroeconomic stability, while noting a slight deterioration of fiscal indicators in recent years.
From a press release issued by Moody's:
New York, October 25, 2016 -- Panama's Baa2 rating with a stable outlook reflects the country's strong economy and its broad macroeconomic stability, says Moody's Investors Service. This buoyant growth will help Panama's government reduce the nation's fiscal deficit over the coming years.
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